SPX Daily Count

Apologies for my lack of posts lately. I have been extremely tied up with work and haven't had time to trade, let alone do up charts. I hope you all have been having some luck trading these markets. My risk averse bias as shown in my last several posts has proven to be incorrect as risk appetite has been increasing for far longer than I predicted. I still remain bearish on equities however and sentiment is once again reaching an extreme (see Prechter's latest interview here). In the SPX price is coming up against solid trend and shoulder line resistance, and I do not foresee a push up through the May 13 retracement at 1177 before a reversal. We may have already turned but if not I believe we are very close. I have just taken a short postiton at 1138 with a stop at 1180.

AUD/JPY Triange

The Aussie/Yen looks to have almost complete a huge triangle that began back in May this year. I think we are nearing a point of reversal from where we will head sharply lower which is the norm on completion of a triangle. For this count to remain valid 79.50 needs to hold. There is a fairly good risk to reward trade that can be make from current levels with a stop at 79.50. If this count is correct price should break back down through 72 over the coming months and will likely head much lower into the end of the year.

EUR/USD 4 Hour Chart

Just a quick one today as I don't have much time through the week anymore. Here is a EUR/USD 4 hour chart with a fairly obvious 5 wave move down from the recent high. I think we will continue to push higher in the final sharp leg of a correction before reversing near the 50% Fib level. This move will correlate with a push higher in risk across the board but will reverse sharply in a downward thrusting 3rd wave possibly around NFPs. Expect volumes and volatility to drop as we push closer to Friday's release.

Bearish SPX Hourly Chart

My daily count seems to be holding up well and I think we are ready to drop. Momentum so far hasn't been strong, but I am still confident that we are heading lower, and have just taken another short position based on this count. As you can see, the move I have labeled and red wave 2 is a flat, and retraced less than 50% of the preceding wave 1. This signifies weakness, which has also been shown through the minimal retracements in the last few weeks when other risky markets bounced much harder. I am moving my stop loss on my previous short to 1064 because if this is a 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd we should start to gain momentum very soon and since this wave is expected to extend a long way, it is unlikely we will retrace much from here. If we do push back up above 1064 I will have to review my count.

NZD/USD Daily Charts

Here are two daily chart possibilities for the NZD/USD. This first one is my primary count, based solely on the Diagonal pictures counting better as a Leading Diagonal (5-3-5-3-5) rather than as an Ending Diagonal (3-3-3-3-3) as per the chart below. It is also possible that the LD wave 1 is an A, the 2 is a B of a more complex double or triple 3 correction, and we will continue to hold the daily range for some time to come. This alternate to my chart does not sit well with my fundamental based expectations for a large decline in the US economy coming into 2011 however, so I do not believe it is likely. I expect the relationship between the US and it's "safe haven" status will continue to deteriorate into the coming months and years, and we will see a decline in the US Dollar as the next wave of global economic decline sweeps across the globe.

Here is my other count for the NZD/USD. If this count is correct it is likely we will retrace the entire length of the Ending Diagonal C of X all the way back to 0.66. This downside move will likely take up a bit more time than the correlatory one in the chart above, however in a similar way I expect that once it reverses to the upside it will do so sharply and impulsively. In both of these two counts, expect the coming move to the downside to be choppy in nature as the moves are both corrective and not impulsive. I think selling this pair in the short term is a possible option but would not suggest getting short unless prices were to retrace to the 0.715 level. In my opinion there are better trading opportunities around at the moment.

SPX Ending Diagonal Possibilities

Here is my bearish SPX Ending Diagonal count. In this count the market has already topped out and completed green wave 2 (see my last post for a daily chart of my longer term count). Although it is hard to make out on a 4 hour chart, there is a possible Leading Diagonal down from last weeks top, and we have reversed sharply in a wave 2 which is a common occurrence after an LD. We will know very early in the week whether or not this count is correct, and while I am hopeful it is, I think it is more likely we push up one more time before reversing as per my next count.

Here is my other Ending Diagonal count, which is bullish in the short term. As you can see price bounced hard off the lower trend line support during Fridays session, and we may see some follow through on Monday in the form of a throw-over fifth wave. If this is the case I would suggest taking short positions from the 1140 level which should offer strong resistance. I do not expect price to break much above 1150 however if it does I will have to revise my longer term count as this will most likely invalidate my ED counts.

SPX Looks close to Topping

This is my current favoured SPX count showing an Ending Diagonal nearing completion. I am expecting price to rollover on a spike up above 1120 from where it will drop sharply in a wave 3. 1035 which has held price in the past should do so once again, although I will be placing my stop at 1180 to be safe. As I have mentioned several times in the past I am very bearish on the US economy and expect the bear trend to continue very soon. I have attempted unsuccessfully to get short with a small stop several times over the last month in anticipation of top, however we have now retraced to a level where I think it is worthwhile taking a short with a larger stop. I agree with the longer term views of Prechter and Gerald Celente and believe we very near to a wave 2 top.

As you can see on the chart to the left (showing a 4 hour zoom of the C wave ED from the chart above) there is clear divergence in the RSI, and price is once again nearing overbought levels. I expect this final thrust up in price (whether it makes a new high or fails) will not make a new high in the RSI showing more bearish divergence. I will be looking to short at 1125 with a 1180 stop. If price fails before reaching that point I will take a short on a break through the bottom upward trending ED support line. As I have mentioned in the past, this is a medium to long term hold position with a great risk to reward. Price is expected to fall beneath 670 in the long term.

GBP/USD Keeps Pushing Higher

Cable just keeps on going! Here is a 4 hour chart of the trend lines I've been watching. If price continues higher into the top resistance zone I think it will make a good short with a stop at 1.59. 1.58 has been important support and resistance several times in the past so it will make a good entry point.

I got out of my SPX short just now as the pattern down from the top looks corrective. I now think risk is likely to edge slowly higher for the remainder of the week until the US GDP data comes out on Friday, which I expect will be dismal.  I will be watching the markets closely then for a top out in equities and likely a turn in risk across the board.

SPX Could be Completing an Ending Diagonal

Here is a possible Ending Diagonal count for the SPX. I have put in a black count showing the ED pretty much complete as I write this, and a red count with another possible wave up to come before a reversal. Either way a break of the bottom trend line should offer a good signal to get short with a stop above the previous high. If this move down complete as an ED it will be the C wave of a large zig-zag from 1007.4, and I expect that price will reverse sharply from the high as it begins falling in a large 3 of 3. I have just taken a short from the top trend line in anticipation for a collapse. Anyone who follows me knows I have been trying to get on at the top of this move for some time. More conservative traders may want to wait for a confirmed break of the bottom trend line before getting short.

GBP/USD Support Channel Continues to Hold

There is a really apparent upward trending support zone on the 4 hour which has continued to hold up the Pound. One again price has reversed sharply pushing higher against the USD. As this entire move looks corrective I am expecting price to eventually break through the bottom of the channel and make a new low. Until then it is not safe to get short unless we move to near the top of the channel or if the support zone has been decisively breached to the downside. Expect resistance just above 1.55 as this has held price in the past.

SPX About to Plummet?

Here is my primary 15 minute SPX count. While the whole move from the high could be counted as a correction it is also possible that we have already topped out and are heading lower from here. As you can see there are some extremely bearish looking candles beginning to show and I think fundamentally it is more likely that we will hear negative news over the weekend. In my chart you can see in my chart we have just begun a third of a third of a third which would explain the sudden sharp drop off in price, and also means this momentum is likely to carry on for the remainder of the session and into next week. I have just taken a short position with a stop at 1090. The target remains open but the expected risk to reward on this trade is massive.

SPX Showing Signs of Weakness

Here is my irregular flat count for the S&P 500. The reason I favour this count is because the wave I have labeled as black wave B fits perfectly as a 3 wave move, and looks awkward when labeled as an impulse which ever way the sub-waves are labeled. Wave 2 retracements are normally deep and sharp however this shallow flat is a warning sign of impending weakness. I expect the final wave of this correction (black C) will likely be a failure as well (not reach the end of black wave A), which is also be a sign of weakness. Once this correction is complete I expect a very hard and fast fall straight through the 1000 level. This will likely occur as levels of negative press about the US and it's imploding economy increase. If there is one trade I want to be in for the rest of this year it is short US equities.

NZD/USD Hourly Chart

Here is my latest NZD/USD count with what I am expecting from this pair over the coming weeks. There appears to be a reasonably clear 5 waves down from the triple top at 0.7155 and it appears as thought the pair has almost completed a flat correction from the low. I expect that price will encounter strong resistance at around the 0.6980 level, which is strong technical resistance and also very near the 50% Fibonacci level. Look to sell from this zone with a stop above the triple top. While this stop is over 100 pips away, if this count is correct and we are about to fall in a third wave the target is well over 400 pips away giving us a great risk to reward ratio.

SPX Head & Shoulder Reversal Pattern Complete

The SPX H&S Pattern that many of have been watching for some time has completed and the neckline has been broken. Price may drop hard from current levels in a large wave 3. While it is possible price may rally from here in a 2 of 3, I think it is more likely that the neckline will hold as resistance and price will fall hard and fast from here after a negligible pullback. I have taken a short from the neckline break. The H&S target is 860 however I think we will go much lower than that. Keep stops at 1050. There is currently a nice 5 waves down from 1048 on the 5 minute so we may pull back to the 1030/38 area before continuing lower.

The upward trending support that I have been watching on the EUR/USD broke last night and the move from the top can be labeled as an impulse. I am going to take a short on a pullback to 1.2345, which could be a second 2 of a 1-2, 1-2. Stops will be kept tight at 1.2395. If the 1.24 level breaks however it is likely we will be moving higher still. There isn't too much else to report as market patterns haven't been very clear over the last week so I haven't been trading. Good luck.

SPX Video Analysis

Roy's latest video analysis of the SPX is out. His thought on equity markets echo my own exactly. I think we will see another small increase in risk appetite early in the week before a reversal. Check out the video by clicking on the link to the left of the page.

Some thoughts on EUR/USD

While the larger count for the EUR/USD pair is indeterminate due to the ambiguous nature of the sub-waves from the 1.5150 high, I have been focusing on shorter term patterns to decipher intra-day direction. For the past month the pair has been carving out a series of 3 wave patterns, which looks very much to me like it is all part of the same corrective move. Many people are calling for a medium term bottom in the EUR/USD and while sentiment is at an extreme which favours the bulls, I am highly dubious that this move down is yet complete. The move from 1.2670 (in red) is clearly a 3 wave move and thus cannot be the final move in an impulse, unless it is part of an ending diagonal, which is clearly not the case in this instance.

Another reason why I believe that this is not the bottom everyone is hoping for is the highly corrective nature of the move up from the 1.18765 low. If we are to see a significant retracement which relates to the entire move from the 1.5150 high, I would expect a much sharper rebound. To the left I have posted an ending diagonal count which is currently my favoured scenario from here. While it is possible that we are just in a corrective move as pictured above, I do not think the EUR/USD has much room left to fall before a larger retracement on the daily scale, and we will probably chop around in a further series of 3 wave moves for the next month or so before pushing higher. Both of these scenarios point to coming downside in the next few days, so I will look to enter short on a move above 1.25 with my stop above 1.27.

NZD/USD Daily Update

Recent bullish price action in the NZD/USD pair has forced me to review my count. On the daily chart the move from the 0.7635 high does not at all look like the beginning of a new motive wave. While it is possible that we have a large drawn out second wave that stretches from 0.7083 to 0.7326, I think this is unlikely the correct count and in the long term the Kiwi will eventually push back above 0.76 again. Medium term I am still bearish however and I expect that after the completion of this rally - which I have labeled as X - we will fall in another corrective ABC to the downside.

NZD/USD 4 Hour

The NZD/USD looks to be completing a very large complex flat correction from the May low. Price is nearing this month's high which should act as some resistance if we make above 0.69. I think it is more likely we rollover soon and head lower in an impulsive fashion. This move will likely coincide with a turn in equities and a shift in sentiment away from riskier markets. This pair has the most extreme sentiment reading of all the majors according the DailyFX data, which warns of an impending reversal. I think this pair offers a fairly good risk to reward from current levels with a stop just above the 50% Fib at 0.695.

SPX Analysis

Here is my 4 hour SPX count. I think we have either just begun the red wave 3 down from the 1108 high or are still correcting in a large complex wave 2 of the same cycle. So far price has been twice rejected at the 38.2% Fibonacci of the entire move down from this year's high. While I am very bearish long term - click here to see a very informative video on Supercycle Theory and how it will affect you over the next few years - it is still possible that equities will remain range bound for several more days, or maybe even weeks, before breaking to new lows.

This chart is a 15 minute close up of the last move down from the 1108 high. I believe the move is either a 1 of the large, red wave 3, or a C wave of an X wave and we are still correcting in the large red wave 2. Either way it looks very obvious to me that the move ended with an ending diagonal. This means that price will almost certainly retrace to the point of origin of the ED before moving lower. Based on this I am going to take a small long position from here with my stop at the recent low. My initial target is 1071, however if my alternate scenario plays out and we are still in the red wave 2 price will move much higher, and likely test the 1105 level again.

SPX Video Analysis

Roy's latest video analysis of the SPX is out. His outlook is extremely bearish from this point onwards. If you are still holding any longs in equities you might want to reconsider your positions. Click the link on the left of the page to view the video.

EUR/USD Ending Diagonal Possibility

Here is another insight into the possible future movements of the EUR/USD. The basis of this idea is the extremely choppy price action from the high (red 4). The 3rd scenario from the last EUR/USD post is also possible, but the other two have been invalidated. Click here for Jamie's take on things. Either way it looks relatively safe to get long from here, with your stop at 1.210 but be careful price could fall in a C of B of 2 before heading higher.

USD/CHF Hourly

The USD/CHF looks to be correcting from 1.147 in a wave ii of C or an X wave (if wave C was complete at the low). Either way I expect more downside over the rest of the week. Look to short from around 1.162 with at stop near the recent high just above 1.17. I am fairly confident in this trade as the drop from the top was sharp and very impulse like and the move off the low is very choppy typical of a correction. Move stops to break even on a break below 1.15. Initial target is 1.1350 however it is possible that the move will extend much lower depending on the pattern that emerges in the coming days. I will update as this move plays out.

EUR/USD Possibilities

Here are several EUR/USD 4 hour charts showing the possible future movements of the pair. I have listed them in order of most favoured to least favoured. This first one is my current primary count because the move off recent from the low at 1.2153 looks very much like a leading diagonal to me. Also I am bullish on equities in the very short term but bearish in the medium term, which fits well with this count. As you can see it looks to me as if the pair has almost completed a wave ii down and is about to head higher in a wave iii. If this could is correct it is likely that price will turn soon and will test 1.245 on Monday or Tuesday. A break beneath 1.2150 will invalidate. Based on this chart I am going to take a long position at 1.2240 which is the near both the 76.4% Fibonacci level and extension where wave a of ii equals wave c of ii.

Here is a more bullish count for the pair, showing a truncated wave 5 which will be a medium term bottom. If this count is correct we will likely see a sharp surge upwards during Mondays session. I do not favour this count due to my bias towards increasing risk aversion over the coming months. If however this count is correct expect price to test 1.30 at a minimum, but more likely higher. The 38.2% Fibonacci of the entire move down from the top lies at 1.33.

Finally here is my bearish EUR/USD count. I am highly doubtful that this scenario will unravel however it is always important to be aware of both bullish and bearish possibilities. Here wave 5 has begun, and looks like it is going to extend downward. The reason I am dubious of this move is that the fall from the 1.2454 high does not look impulsive at all. However it is possible that is is a choppy leading diagonal and price is going to drop hard through 1.2150 early in the week.

SPX Video Analysis

Roy's latest video analysis of the SPX is out in which he warns bears to be careful as it doesn't look like the market has topped out just yet. I also have been cautious of this being the top as the move down from 1104 does not at all look impulsive. Click the link on the left of the page to view the video.

AUD/USD Could Be Topping

Keep an eye on this Head and Shoulders reversal pattern forming on the AUD/USD. If the neckline at 0.821 breaks price will likely head back down to the 0.8050 support level. 80.50 has been solid resistance twice over the last few weeks, and if it breaks it is likely we will see continuation of the move to the downside. It is possible that an impulsive wave 1 is complete from the high and we are now retracing in a wave 2. A move 0.839 will invalidate this count.

Clear Impulse Down on the USD/CHF

There hasn't been many clear impulsive moves over the last few days as most markets seem to be correcting in a very choppy manner. The USD/CHF is offering one of the only clear impulses I can see in any FX market. I am going attempt to take a short trade from 1.163 with my stop at 1.17. Be warned however that the move from the low I have labeled as 1 or A to the high at 2 or B could also be an impulse so it is possible that price will continue higher after an ABC down. Do not risk more than you can afford to lose. Sometimes it is best to wait for clearer signals if you don't really have any good trade ideas.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

The inverted H&S target from my previous EUR/USD chart (1.2730) has not yet been hit. I took profit near the top of the B of X after noticing that the wave looked very corrective in nature and further downside was likely. Once 1.25 broke a new H&S pattern emerged as marked on this chart, and as you can see the target was easily reached. I have not taken a long position from near the 78.6% Fib which is also the bottom of a confluence area that the pair has been between for the majority of the last few weeks. I think we will be moving up from current levels very soon. The corrective downward movement of the NZD/USD from the recent high also gives weight to an increasing risk appetite over the next few days (in a C of a flat). Keep your stops at 1.2140.

May 22nd Elliott Wave Analysis Video

Roy the Elliott Wave Practitioner has just released a new video analysis of the SPX. Click on the link to the left to watch it.

EUR/USD Inverse Head and Shoulders Reversal

Some of you may have already spotted this pattern on the EUR/USD hourly, and a similar, inverse pattern on the USDX. The EUR/USD has been holding up well over the past few days and I expect Euro strength to continue as price rebounds from oversold territory. As you can see the pair has completed 5 waves up which is either a 1 or an A, and looks to have completed a correction - labeled as a B or 2. Look to get long with risk just beneath the recent low. The H&S target is 1.2730, or for a more conservative price target the Fibonacci price extension where wave A or 1 = wave 3 or C is at 1.26.
*** Friday US Session Update *** I am taking profit on this trade at 1.2555 because the move from the bottom at 1.2470 looks corrective so we will likely be moving below there before we push higher again if at all.

SPX and DAX Video Analysis

Roy has just released his latest video update of the SPX and the DAX markets. Check it out by clicking the link to the left. Things are looking very bearish for equities as markets move back into a state of risk aversion.

USD/JPY 30 Minute Chart

The initial downside USD/JPY target after the completion of the Ending Diagonal (the point of origin of the ED) at 92.21 has been reached, however the fall did not maintain momentum and price has reversed in what seems to be a corrective manner. I believe the USD will push slightly higher to just over 93.00 before dropping southward once again. As you can see the 93.10 level is the fourth wave extreme of the smaller cycle and also the 61.8% Fib of the impulse down from the top. If this count is invalidated, risk on this trade is fairly limited as all stops for any short positions taken should be placed just near the recent high at 93.60.

SPX Fibonacci Confluence Zone at 1155

The SPX looks to have put in a complete 5 waves down from the high at 1176 and is pulling back sharply in standard wave 2 fashion. There is a very important confluence of Fibonacci levels at the 1155/1158 zone which is the 61.8% retracement of the entire drop from the 1220 top, and the 61.8% of last weeks high. If price retraces this far I think this will be an excellent area to get short. Keep your stops at 1177.

SPX Elliott Wave Video Analysis

Roy, the Elliott Wave Practitioner, has just released a short video analysis of the SPX. Shorting from near current levels offers an excellent opportunity for a long term trade with the possibility of a great risk to reward. Click on the link to left of the screen to see this latest video. I will also be doing a shorter terms SPX analysis later today as I have noticed a very important Fibonacci confluence zone on the 1 hour if we retrace from current levels in a second wave from the top at 1176.

SPX Wave 2 Looks to have Topped

Well my Ending Diagonal scenario didn't play out and now that the parallel channel from the SPX highs has been breached to the downside my bias has changed. So far we have had a clear 5 waves down from the top. This could be a complete impulse and a retracement is about to occur, or it could be a far more bearish 1-2, 1-2 scenario. I tend to favour the latter as I expect this fall the be fast and hard. Look to get short on a pullback, this overstretched market has a long way to fall from here.

SPX Update

Here is my latest SPX chart. It looks fairly obvious to me that the SPX is forming an Ending Diagonal. The moves from the bottom of wave 4 struggle to be defined by any other patterns. In line with this count I expect an increase in risk appetite over the coming session, before a reversal and sharp fall later in the US session. I have sold out of my previous short from 1160 at break even and will look to re-enter again at around 1180. This is a very long term trade and the risk to reward expected on it is excellent. Because I expect equities to top out here and plummet for months a set target cannot yet be defined as yet. Keep risk at 1220 if you can or at least at 1195, just above downward sloping resistance if you want to keep risk tight.

USD/JPY Ending Diagonal 30 Minute Chart

Here is my 30 minute Ending Diagonal count for the USD/JPY pair. The pair may have topped out and completed a large correction at the recent high at 93.64. The series of 3 wave moves from 92.20 fits perfectly with an ED patten, so even if this correction isn't over and we are going to consolidate for longer, it is likely that price will fall to at least the 92.20 level as it is the norm for ED's to retrace to at least the level of their point of origin. I believe we are soon going to see an acceleration to the downside in a push well below the wave 1 low at 88. I have taken a short from 93.50 with a stop just above the high. If you are going to get in on this trade keep your stop at 93.65.

Covering My Short Positions

It is 7.40 a.m. GMT and I have decided to take profit of my EUR/USD, AUD/JPY and SPX trades due to the lack of clarity on smaller time frame counts and some very bullish looking signals in the aforementioned and some other correlative markets. If you have been following my trades and want to keep up to date with my intraday movements I post live update throughout the day via my Twitter account. I will be looking to re-enter all these positions from a higher level and will post updated charts (if previous counts are invalidated or begin to seem improbable) and orders when opportunities occur. Good luck!

SPX 30 Minute Chart Update

Here is an update of my SPX count. The retrace from the low is sufficient in size to assume that is it a larger cycle 1-2 rather than a 3-4 as I previously thought. I am expecting one final push above 1165 to complete this correction from where I will be looking to take a short position on the completion of the wave 5 (v) of C. At present we may be nearing completion of a wave 2 of 5 (v) or we may still be in a wave 4 (iv) of C. I have marked the Fibonacci rations with wave 1 = wave 5 for both possibilities. If we move to below 1130 without first pushing up in a final motive wave this count will be invalidated. Look to get short from around 1180 with a stop at 1210. This is a medium term hold position which offers a great risk to reward. For more info see Roy's latest video on the SPX.

EUR/USD 15 Minute Chart

I believe the EUR/USD has finally started moving lower again and will accelerate to the downside after a small retracement from gap support. This will likely coincide with a drop in the price of equities, and an overall shift towards safety. The move from the top at 1.3095 so far looks impulsive and the Euro has been comparatively weak across the majors which I expect to continue over the coming few days. It does not appear that the news about the situation in Greece has done much to shift overall sentiment toward the Euro. I took a short position from 1.2990 and have my stop just above the high at 1.31. If you are looking to enter the trade wait for a pullback after the gap is closed but beware if equities drop off and the markets move into a state of panic price may slice through support at 1.2750 and 1.2550 hard and fast.

SPX500 Hourly

Here is my hourly SPX chart. I think we are currently reversing in a wave C of 4 and will test above 1140 before turning bearish again. Not much else to say on this one except I am very bearish long term on equities from this point. I will be looking to get short again at around 1150/1160 with my stop at the wave 1 low of 1180.

AUD/USD Daily

My AUD/USD count is similar to my AUD/JPY count in the fact that I think we are about to drop in a wave 5 of 1 down. As long as the USD remains weak against the Yen however, it is a better idea to trade the AUD/JPY than this pair. As you can seen resistance at 94 was too strong for the Aussie to break through and price has fallen off sharply in what looks to be an impulsive third wave. If equities  remain weak expect the AUD/USD to as well.

AUD/JPY Hourly

There were some huge moves away from risk in the recent US session. Price has rebounded quite strongly however I think this move is a sign of things to come, and the push up is just the last of the optimists throwing their money away before the markets come crashing down in a state of panic and fear. I am currently short the AUD/JPY as I believe it is the best barometer of risk being the highest yielding currency pair. Price has rebounded to a level which I believe is a good spot to get short so I will be adding to my position soon. Look to sell at 83 with a stop at 84.

CAD/JPY Daily Update

There don't seem to be many obvious trades for me to discuss at the moment. The sharp drop from the top in many pairs hasn't had the immediate follow through I would expect if this were the beginning of a new panic driven cycle. While I am still bearish on equities and commodities, it is possible there will be one more push higher before a turn. Here is my daily CAD/JPY chart, which points to one last push up before panic and fear retake the markets and prices plummet. If price does continue to fall and 88.458 is breached, than my count is off and it will signal that the top is likely in.