Well my Ending Diagonal scenario didn't play out and now that the parallel channel from the SPX highs has been breached to the downside my bias has changed. So far we have had a clear 5 waves down from the top. This could be a complete impulse and a retracement is about to occur, or it could be a far more bearish 1-2, 1-2 scenario. I tend to favour the latter as I expect this fall the be fast and hard. Look to get short on a pullback, this overstretched market has a long way to fall from here.
"All gaps will be closed" meaning ~1158 cash and likely invalidating your count
ReplyDeleteWhat I remember frm Prechter is that wave 2 can be any corrective pattern except a Triangle.
ReplyDeleteMaybe fifth wave of C2 was truncated and top is wher you have a "a" wave of a triangle. Then you have 1-2 and i-ii
greg
Jared:
ReplyDeleteCan you post an analysis of NZD/USD daily?
How I can see is what we are in a big triangle, but what direction is more common what ir breaks?
Thank you.
Maravellous your analysis in USD/JPY 30 minutes.
Regards.
Hi Anonymous, I have no idea where you got that quote from would you mind giving some context? I think time will tell if my count is correct or not. If you have one you think is more likely please feel free to post a link to it on here or on the Facebook Forum.
ReplyDeleteHi other Anonymous, I also thought wave 2's could not be triangles but I was discussing it with my friend on Twitter and he sent me this quote from Prechter's book - "Although upon extremely rare occasions a second wave in an impulse appears to take the form of a triangle, triangles nearly always occur in positions prior to the final actionary wave in the pattern of one larger degree". So it is a possible count and in my opinion the most likely at the moment.
Hi Gustavo, I'm glad to hear you are profiting on the USD/JPY trade, I recommend holding onto that for a while I think it will drop for weeks if not months. I will do up a NZD/USD chart and analysis for you soon. If not this session then over the weekend. Good luck with your trading and thanks for your continued support.
Cheers everyone,
Jared
Jared,
ReplyDeleteAs stated by Pretcher, second wave triangles are extremely rare so I dont favor that count.
Greg's count with an truncated 5 do not work if we adhere strictly with the alternation rule, as I would expect a sideways movement instead of a sharp 4.
I agree with you, that the scenario that it is playing out is a 3 of some degree, we will have to wait to know for sure.
@federicolois
Hi,
ReplyDeletemaybe we have an X wave where wave b is a triangle, then move down to today lows.
Considering that euro is really oversold with extreme bearish sentiment and possible end of extended 5 on usdx we could face more of this 2 on spx. Maybe this indexes need more time. will see - primary count is of course that we have 3rd wave.
all the best
greg
Hi Federcolois,
ReplyDeleteI have been having the same discussion on the Facebook Forum with James. His SPX charts do not match up exactly with mine so he can't even see a triangle formation. Here is a close up chart of my count. This fits too perfectly to me to not be counted as a triangle. I don't usually ever put them in as wave 2s either. If you can count it a different way let me know. http://imgur.com/ToJJO.png Alternation is not a rule merely a guideline so Greg's count will likely still be possible. Do you have a link? I don't know who you are referring to. Also the move may be a complete 5 down and we may be looking on a W2 pullback to occur on Monday. Keep that in mind.
Hi Greg,
ReplyDeleteWhat you speak of is what I originally thought was happening with the ED scenario. While it is definitely still possible I do not think it is probable as the move the downside accelerated as it moved lower which I believe is indicative of further weakness. Also we had already bounce beyond the 61.8% Fib of the entire move down, which now conveniently sits right on 1157 with the 61.8% Fib of the top at 1176.6. If we have completed 5 down already and are pulling back in a W2 and we retest this level, 1155 will be a prime spot to get short.
I know what you mean about the FX pairs. I was actually quite surprised that the move in equities was not well reflected well in forex. If we pull back in a W2 like I spoke about above it should give some strength to some of the riskier FX pairs, including the EUR/USD which I agree looks like it's going to pullback soon. That said however if the SPX keeps dropping in a sharp 3 of 3 next week I think the EUR/USD will continue its downside run, despite being so oversold already.
Hi Gustavo,
ReplyDeleteI posted a NZD/USD daily count on Thursday the 29th of April. Nothing new has developed since then so there is no point in me doing up another chart as it will be almost identical to the old one. I don't think we are in a triangle pattern, I can't even see the triangle you speak of, and I expect price to continue to fall from current levels, although we may have a slight rebound before we fall further, but I don't expect price to rise above 0.7440.
Hello Jared:
ReplyDeleteI can see your point, I revisited the chart of 29 of April and what I am doing is connecting the lows where you have a channel connecting the highs and the I make a trendline passing by the high of October 19 and the point labeled 2, in this form I can see a triangle.
The next week can be decisive and I wish to you great profits.
I am having to you how a great reference!!
Regards.
Gustavo.
Hi Gustavo,
ReplyDeleteNow I see what you are talking about. You are right that it could be a massive triangle I am moving my stop to 0.7150 to protect profit in case it plays out like you say, although my bias is very bearish on commodities and equities overall. If a triangle does form it is likely price will continue upwards as triangles are usually continuation patterns, however it is rare but also possible to have a terminal triangle at the end of a run just before a reversal. Either way if this is a triangle it is likely price will remain range bound in the pattern for several weeks to come, if not longer.
Definitively is not a triangle in place now:-) in 0.6930.
ReplyDeleteRegards.
Jared,
ReplyDeleteYeah it should have read: "if we adhere strictly with the alternation guideline" :D ... I meant that even if probable it would have diminished the probability of it.