NZD/USD Daily Charts

Here are two daily chart possibilities for the NZD/USD. This first one is my primary count, based solely on the Diagonal pictures counting better as a Leading Diagonal (5-3-5-3-5) rather than as an Ending Diagonal (3-3-3-3-3) as per the chart below. It is also possible that the LD wave 1 is an A, the 2 is a B of a more complex double or triple 3 correction, and we will continue to hold the daily range for some time to come. This alternate to my chart does not sit well with my fundamental based expectations for a large decline in the US economy coming into 2011 however, so I do not believe it is likely. I expect the relationship between the US and it's "safe haven" status will continue to deteriorate into the coming months and years, and we will see a decline in the US Dollar as the next wave of global economic decline sweeps across the globe.

Here is my other count for the NZD/USD. If this count is correct it is likely we will retrace the entire length of the Ending Diagonal C of X all the way back to 0.66. This downside move will likely take up a bit more time than the correlatory one in the chart above, however in a similar way I expect that once it reverses to the upside it will do so sharply and impulsively. In both of these two counts, expect the coming move to the downside to be choppy in nature as the moves are both corrective and not impulsive. I think selling this pair in the short term is a possible option but would not suggest getting short unless prices were to retrace to the 0.715 level. In my opinion there are better trading opportunities around at the moment.