Some thoughts on EUR/USD

While the larger count for the EUR/USD pair is indeterminate due to the ambiguous nature of the sub-waves from the 1.5150 high, I have been focusing on shorter term patterns to decipher intra-day direction. For the past month the pair has been carving out a series of 3 wave patterns, which looks very much to me like it is all part of the same corrective move. Many people are calling for a medium term bottom in the EUR/USD and while sentiment is at an extreme which favours the bulls, I am highly dubious that this move down is yet complete. The move from 1.2670 (in red) is clearly a 3 wave move and thus cannot be the final move in an impulse, unless it is part of an ending diagonal, which is clearly not the case in this instance.

Another reason why I believe that this is not the bottom everyone is hoping for is the highly corrective nature of the move up from the 1.18765 low. If we are to see a significant retracement which relates to the entire move from the 1.5150 high, I would expect a much sharper rebound. To the left I have posted an ending diagonal count which is currently my favoured scenario from here. While it is possible that we are just in a corrective move as pictured above, I do not think the EUR/USD has much room left to fall before a larger retracement on the daily scale, and we will probably chop around in a further series of 3 wave moves for the next month or so before pushing higher. Both of these scenarios point to coming downside in the next few days, so I will look to enter short on a move above 1.25 with my stop above 1.27.