SPX Analysis

Here is my 4 hour SPX count. I think we have either just begun the red wave 3 down from the 1108 high or are still correcting in a large complex wave 2 of the same cycle. So far price has been twice rejected at the 38.2% Fibonacci of the entire move down from this year's high. While I am very bearish long term - click here to see a very informative video on Supercycle Theory and how it will affect you over the next few years - it is still possible that equities will remain range bound for several more days, or maybe even weeks, before breaking to new lows.

This chart is a 15 minute close up of the last move down from the 1108 high. I believe the move is either a 1 of the large, red wave 3, or a C wave of an X wave and we are still correcting in the large red wave 2. Either way it looks very obvious to me that the move ended with an ending diagonal. This means that price will almost certainly retrace to the point of origin of the ED before moving lower. Based on this I am going to take a small long position from here with my stop at the recent low. My initial target is 1071, however if my alternate scenario plays out and we are still in the red wave 2 price will move much higher, and likely test the 1105 level again.