AUD/JPY Triange

The Aussie/Yen looks to have almost complete a huge triangle that began back in May this year. I think we are nearing a point of reversal from where we will head sharply lower which is the norm on completion of a triangle. For this count to remain valid 79.50 needs to hold. There is a fairly good risk to reward trade that can be make from current levels with a stop at 79.50. If this count is correct price should break back down through 72 over the coming months and will likely head much lower into the end of the year.

Covering My Short Positions

It is 7.40 a.m. GMT and I have decided to take profit of my EUR/USD, AUD/JPY and SPX trades due to the lack of clarity on smaller time frame counts and some very bullish looking signals in the aforementioned and some other correlative markets. If you have been following my trades and want to keep up to date with my intraday movements I post live update throughout the day via my Twitter account. I will be looking to re-enter all these positions from a higher level and will post updated charts (if previous counts are invalidated or begin to seem improbable) and orders when opportunities occur. Good luck!

AUD/JPY Hourly

There were some huge moves away from risk in the recent US session. Price has rebounded quite strongly however I think this move is a sign of things to come, and the push up is just the last of the optimists throwing their money away before the markets come crashing down in a state of panic and fear. I am currently short the AUD/JPY as I believe it is the best barometer of risk being the highest yielding currency pair. Price has rebounded to a level which I believe is a good spot to get short so I will be adding to my position soon. Look to sell at 83 with a stop at 84.

AUD/JPY Update

The AUD/JPY pair looks to have completed an impulse to the downside and has retraced sharply. Expect the 61.8% Fib level to provide some resistance. I am currently short this pair in expectation of some follow through after Friday's sharp decline. It is however possible that the impulse I have labeled as the red 1 is actually a C wave of a correction, and there is further upside to come in this pair. If price breaches 86.70 my bias will change from bearish to neutral until the picture clears up.

AUD/JPY Hourly

AUD/JPY has just dropped off sharply along with equities and gold. I have taken a short based on this very bearish count, with a stop at 0.86. The sharp decline is typical of a 3rd of a 3rd wave so I have a reasonable amount of confidence in this chart. Either way risk is fairly minimal (60 pips). Target level is to be determined at a later date. The next zone of support once 0.85 breaks is not until 0.84. I hope you've all had a profitable week - it's been a tricky one! Have a wonderful weekend.

AUD/JPY Hourly Chart

I have taken a long position in AUD/JPY based on this EW count. Whether or not the current wave on the daily (bold, black numbers) is forming a 3 or a C is not clear, however it seems fairly apparent to me that the Australian Dollar is moving higher against the Yen. I took my long position several hours ago right on the 38.2% Fib of the recent red wave 3 up at 85.92. I announced the trade on my twitter feed where I post all my trades and ideas but I wasn't able to post this analysis any sooner. Price action on the 1 minute chart from the recent low looks corrective however, so if you are interested in getting long it isn't too late. I would suggest placing long orders at 85.50 with a stop at the wave 1 extreme at 84.65. Target is 88.30.

AUD/JPY Refresh

Here is a total rehash of my AUD/JPY count. The double top has been broken putting an end to my hopes of the massive H&S possibility that could have been forming. The 61.8% Fibonacci of the entire move down has also given way, and recent price action is looking very bullish. I am now no longer bearish on this pair, while I still expect a pullback soon - Daily RSI is well overbought - my longer term preferred expectation is not to the upside. The CAD/JPY chart looks almost identical. I am not currently trading this pair. I will keep you posted if I see any opportunities in it arising.

AUD/JPY Trade Idea

While my CAD/JPY count was invalidated by a break above the January high, my AUD/JPY is still very much possible. Here is my 4 hour chart. As you can see a final 5th wave is needed to complete the impulse from 81.72. I expect this final wave will complete at around 85.20, which is where wave 1 is equal to wave 5 (shown below), however if it pushes beyond there it will encounter a significant resistance zone where several major highs have formed in the past. This move is beginning to look tired, as you can see in the chart, the A leg of 2 was much sharper than the C leg has been so far. RSI divergence also warns of impending downside.

Here is a close up hourly of the C leg of green wave 2 so far. As you can see the final 5 does not yet look complete. Expect a push above 85 to complete this move. I will be looking to short from 85.10 with a stop above the recent high at 86.20.

AUD/JPY 4 Hour Chart

 

There has been a lot of speculation recently on risk aversion returning to the markets with a big fall in commodity currencies against the Yen. However following the NFP release this evening (I am in Australia) there has been a sizable increase in risk appetite. This has led to strength in the AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY (another pair many Elliotticians have been focusing on of late). Above is my 4 hour chart of the AUD/JPY pair. I think there is still more upside to come (similar to the CAD/JPY) before a major reversal. I will be watching for a clear 5 wave move up before I look to get short. 

Below is a close up of the B wave down which several people seem to count as a 5 wave move.