NZD/USD Daily

Here is a daily of the NZD/USD pair. As you can see price has been struggling upwards in a very choppy fashion for the best part of three months. The pair has formed a vague corrective channel which I believe will continue to contain price until the next move down begins. I will be looking to short on a retest of channel resistance at 0.73. My stop will be at 0.7440 near the previous high.

SPX Video Analysis

Roy has just sent me a link to a short video analysis he has done on the SPX. Click here to see it.

Still My Favourite EUR/USD Count

Here is an update of my favoured EUR/USD count. The wave 4 triangle count was seconds ago invalidated on a push just below the 1.3268 level. I believe an Ending Diagonal is forming and expect price to push slightly lower before retracing in a wave 4 back to around the 1.3450 area. Ending Diagonals usually form when price moves too fast too quickly, which fits well here as the drop from the top at the end of 2009 has been immense. I am not looking to trade the EUR/USD under the current circumstances as I believe the choppy price action does not offer a worthwhile risk/reward ratio.

EUR/GBP Trade Idea

I think EUR/GBP is nearing completion of a massive triangle and will soon rise sharply. I have pictured an alternate bullish count which has the next move of the triangle being a C leg of D (see Alt. D) with an E down to come before another push to much higher levels. Either way I expect 0.86 to hold and for price to push higher from near current levels. The next big move up (green wave 5) will take several months to complete. I will be looking to get long from near the rising trend line support with an open target. Stops will be moved to cover profit when price has moved sufficiently higher, in case this is a B wave triangle [To see Vasan's bearish EUR/GBP count click here] or the triangle is not yet complete (see Alt. count). For all counts a bull move is expected in the short term making this a high probability and fairly safe trade.

AUD/JPY Update

The AUD/JPY pair looks to have completed an impulse to the downside and has retraced sharply. Expect the 61.8% Fib level to provide some resistance. I am currently short this pair in expectation of some follow through after Friday's sharp decline. It is however possible that the impulse I have labeled as the red 1 is actually a C wave of a correction, and there is further upside to come in this pair. If price breaches 86.70 my bias will change from bearish to neutral until the picture clears up.

Another USD/JPY Possibility

Here is another possible count for the correction USD/JPY has been stuck in for most of this month. The move from 91.60 looks to be corrective so I think we are in for one more drop before a move upwards. I am going to attempt a small long position from around 91.40, with a 30 pip stop. Right now there are numerous possible counts for this pair, so if you are a conservative trader I would recommend staying away from it and focusing on something else. If equities drop off hard over the next few days as many people are expecting, USD/JPY will likely remain weak.

GBP/USD Update

The GBP/USD pair gapped down significantly on open today, probably due to fears about the Volcano in Iceland and the long term effects it could have on the UK economy. I think the the top is likely in for wave 4 and we will continue down with the longer term trend from here on. It is fairly likely that the gap will close, and the pair may be forming a leading diagonal from the top at 1.5524 so a pullback is likely. Take this opportunity to get short with a stop above the recent high. Risk:Reward here is good as our target is below 1.46.

AUD/JPY Hourly

AUD/JPY has just dropped off sharply along with equities and gold. I have taken a short based on this very bearish count, with a stop at 0.86. The sharp decline is typical of a 3rd of a 3rd wave so I have a reasonable amount of confidence in this chart. Either way risk is fairly minimal (60 pips). Target level is to be determined at a later date. The next zone of support once 0.85 breaks is not until 0.84. I hope you've all had a profitable week - it's been a tricky one! Have a wonderful weekend.

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Here is my long term chart for the GBP/USD pair. I think the move down from 2.04 (not shown) is a completed impulse down, and we are now correcting in a large ABC. As you can see the B leg of this move is not yet complete, and I expect a small push higher over the coming week to complete wave 4 before a sharp decline begins to complete the C leg of red wave B. This move will likely take several months.

USD/CAD Trade Plan

Here is a daily chart of the USD/CAD pair. As you can see the pair has fallen from its high in a complex corrective manner. As 5 waves down from the second X are clearly visible, I am expecting a small bounce back up in a B wave before another impulse down completes the zig-zag Z. Wave 1 started off the screen at 0.9058 so as long at price does not breach that level, this count remains valid.

Here is a closer view of the 5 waves down that I spoke of earlier. As you can see the move looks complete or at least nearly complete. I have taken a small long position in the hope that the bottom is in at 0.997 with minimal risk as my stop is only 20 pips away at 0.995 (beneath the recent low) If this level is breached I will wait for another 5 waves up and 3 waves down on a smaller time frame to try and get long again. My target is between the first and fourth wave extremes at 1.03 and 1.037.

Facebook Forum Group

I have started a Facebook Group to act as a forum for people to upload their charts, discuss their ideas and gain feedback from other chartists. I am hoping to build up a solid user base where people who are learning about Elliott Wave can come for guidance and feedback, and where experienced Elliotticians can go to talk about their ideas and expectations for the future. CLICK HERE to check out the page and please join if you think you might have something to offer or gain from the Elliott Wave community.

AUD/USD Hourly Chart

The AUD/USD is setting up to form a nice Head and Shoulders pattern on the hourly. I will be looking to get short from 0.93 with a stop at 0.9390. Once the neckline is broken the target will be 0.9060, however my longer term ED count for the AUD/USD would have 0.90 as a likely target.

USD/JPY Hourly Chart Update

Here is an hourly USD/JPY count. As you can see recent price action has remained range bound between former resistance at 93.77 and the 38.2% Fibonacci of the previous move up. I am expecting a break from this wedge over the coming session. If price does break higher from these levels it will indicate a very weak Yen, as neither the 2nd nor the 4th waves (green) will have retraced a substantial percentage of the previous wave. I have a buy order set at 93.00 and am keeping my stops at 91.1. Initial target will be 95.5.

EUR/USD Daily Chart Possibilities

Here are a few scenarios that could be developing in the EUR/USD pair. All three of these possibilities are based on the assumption the the move down from 1.3820 to 1.3270 is a 3 wave move. I have seen numerous EW charts trying to force this move as an impulse when the proportions really don't look right as a 5 wave move. While it is not impossible that I am incorrect, I think it is highly unlikely that the move is a 5 and not a 3. The chart to the left is of an ending diagonal wave 5 and is my primary count.

This next chart is of an irregular flat wave 4. For this count to remain valid, the wave 1 extreme at 1.42 must not be breached.

My final chart for the EUR/USD pair is a wave 4 triangle count. For this count to remain valid price action must remain below the top of wave a at 1.3820.

USD/JPY 5 Minute Chart

USD/JPY has moved from the low at 92.83 in an impulsive manner. Price only just missed my long position order at 92.70, however I believe the current wave 2 pullback offers a good opportunity to get in on the trade. I am going to attempt a long from 93.2, based on this chart. My stop loss will be just beneath the low at 92.80 so risk is minimal. Target is 95.50.

USD/CAD 4 Hour Impulse Down Looks Complete

Here is my 4 Hour Count of the USD/CAD pair. A clear 5 waves down looks complete, which I think is the A of a Z in a triple 3 complex correction. Disappointing Canadian Employment Data has seen the US Dollar surge over the past hours, which has formed a very bullish looking candle, and the beginnings of what I expect will play out to be a 3rd wave of a zig-zag. I got long at 1.003 yesterday, and price is testing this level now in what appears to be a minor wave 2 pullback. I will be adding to my long position soon with minimal risk with a stop at 0.999. Expect a retracement to at least the 38.2% Fibonacci, which is also near the 4th wave extreme at around 1.03.

USD/JPY Still Correcting

Here is a 15 Minute Chart of the USD/JPY correction so far. The move down from the top at 94.80 is clearly corrective, however this red ABC which is about to complete may just be the three waves of an A of a large flat or a triangle still to play out. Either way I am going to get out of my short position at 92.70, or if price reverses hard and my target is not hit, at 93.75. I am going to attempt to buy back in at around 92.70 or after a clear 5 wave move down from the black 4. Keep you stops at 91, targeting 95.50.

AUD/JPY Hourly Chart

I have taken a long position in AUD/JPY based on this EW count. Whether or not the current wave on the daily (bold, black numbers) is forming a 3 or a C is not clear, however it seems fairly apparent to me that the Australian Dollar is moving higher against the Yen. I took my long position several hours ago right on the 38.2% Fib of the recent red wave 3 up at 85.92. I announced the trade on my twitter feed where I post all my trades and ideas but I wasn't able to post this analysis any sooner. Price action on the 1 minute chart from the recent low looks corrective however, so if you are interested in getting long it isn't too late. I would suggest placing long orders at 85.50 with a stop at the wave 1 extreme at 84.65. Target is 88.30.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Here is a ending diagonal count for the AUD/USD pair. If this count is correct it would explain the three wave move from the red 4 at 0.8578. Price has recently broken above the downward sloping trend line which has been very important on several occasions in the past. This is a bullish sign, however I am not certain price action can stay above the line for long. The move from the red 4 definitely doesn't look impulsive so price action using EW can be hard to define. There is always the possibility we are still consolidating and price will remain withing the 0.86-0.94 range which has held it for the most part for over 7 months. At this point in time with all the uncertainty associated with this pair I would not recommend taking any positions in it.

Using Elliott Wave to Count Complex Corrections

While searching for some information on how to count complex corrections using EW to help a friend better understand my charts, I stumbled across a very good video on the topic. I thought I'd share it with you all because if you are not yet an accomplished Elliottician, you may find it very useful. To see the video, click here.

Game On USD/JPY!

Here is my updated count of USD/JPY. A spike on the NFP release has pushed the pair above 94 in what I believe is one final thrust before a sizable correction. Even if my longer term count is incorrect price is likely to fall to at least 92.5 from these levels. Below is a daily chart going back to 2003 showing RSI readings. As you can see RSI has never manager to make it above 80 for more than a few minutes and we are at those levels as I write this. I am taking a short position here against 95.5 with a minimum target or 93. Move stops to protect profit on a move back below 94.

AUD/JPY Refresh

Here is a total rehash of my AUD/JPY count. The double top has been broken putting an end to my hopes of the massive H&S possibility that could have been forming. The 61.8% Fibonacci of the entire move down has also given way, and recent price action is looking very bullish. I am now no longer bearish on this pair, while I still expect a pullback soon - Daily RSI is well overbought - my longer term preferred expectation is not to the upside. The CAD/JPY chart looks almost identical. I am not currently trading this pair. I will keep you posted if I see any opportunities in it arising.

Friday 2nd April Position Updates

USD/JPY: I will be looking to get out of my USD/JPY short position very soon. The move from the top at 95.05 does not look impulsive so I suspect there will be another move higher before a sizeable pullback. Although Daily RSI is still well into overbought territory, I don't think a short term top is in just yet. If you are short this pair I suggest you do the same. I will be looking to get out for a small profit or at a minimum at break even.

GBP/JPY: Similar to U/J the recent move down from the top does not look like a motive wave. While I am not saying further downside is not possible, it looks highly likely to me that the top at 143.65 will be breached sometime in the near term. I am getting out of my short position at market for a small 50 pip profit. With a view to possibly get in at a higher level.

USD/CAD: While I still favour USD/CAD to the short side, my sell order at 1.025 is now unlikely to be hit as price has dropped away further since my post on this pair. I will still be watching for an opportunity to get short on a pullback however. Keep an eye on the price of Oil for clues as USD/CAD and Crude markets have a high negative correlation.

New Elliott Wave Video Analysis

Roy, The Elliott Wave Practitioner, has just released another one of his daily videos for everyone to see. I will likely only have free access to these for a few days so make the most of them while you can. In today's video he analyzes EUR/USD, USD/DKK, USD/CHF, USD/ZAR, USD Cash Index, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, HG Copper, Light Crude, Heating Oil, Gasoline, Spot Gold, Spot Silver, TSX, SPX, Rifin, EUSTOXX50, IBEX 35, Italy's MIB , FTSE, DBA, Soybeans, Soybean Meal, and Wheat. Click the link to the left to see his latest video.

USD/JPY Update

Here is an updated USD/JPY chart. I have modified the count slightly to fit in better with the unfolding pattern. I think the pair has topped or is very near to topping, and have taken a short position with a stop at 94.5. I will be moving my stop loss to break even on a move down past 93.

USD/JPY Nearing Former Resistance

Here is my daily USD/JPY count. I think the pair is about to turn downwards in the final wave of an X correction. Daily RSI is well overbought and there are also multiple divergences on smaller time frames. The pair's recent move upwards was sharp and fast, a trait which is common before ending diagonals are formed, and even if my longer term count is incorrect, the pair is due for a pullback very soon. I expect price to slightly breach former resistance at 93.77 before pulling back to at least 92.2 but probably much further.

Here is an hourly chart showing the ED I am talking about. Wave iii of the ED, although it looks like it could be an 5 wave move, does not fit correctly as wave 3 is the shortest. This gives merit to the possibility that this count is correct. I will be taking a short position from right above the former resistance line, at 93.90, which is also just beneath where wave i of the ED will be equal to wave v of the ED, and also where a of v of the ED is equal to c of v of the ED. I will be keeping my stop at 94.50, and moving it to protect my profit on a move back down beneath 93.

In Depth Elliott Wave Analysis Video

For a limited time my friend and mentor Roy, The Elliott Wave Practitioner, will be allowing access to his daily videos through my site. He offers thorough analysis of multiple markets with a focus on Elliott Wave trading. I owe Roy for much of my trading knowledge and I have a lot of respect for his analysis. No matter what level of trader you are, everyone can gain something from watching these videos. Click the link to the left to see today's video, where he covers the EUR/USD, USD Cash Index, USD/ZAR, EUR/ZAR, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, USD/CAD, Spot Gold in Yen, USD and Euro, Light Crude, Heating Oil, Gasoline, TNX, TYX, TLT, TSX, SPX, Rifin, EUSTOXX50, IBEX 35, FTSE, and Italy's MIB.