Here is my daily USD/JPY count. I think the pair is about to turn downwards in the final wave of an X correction. Daily RSI is well overbought and there are also multiple divergences on smaller time frames. The pair's recent move upwards was sharp and fast, a trait which is common before ending diagonals are formed, and even if my longer term count is incorrect, the pair is due for a pullback very soon. I expect price to slightly breach former resistance at 93.77 before pulling back to at least 92.2 but probably much further.
Here is an hourly chart showing the ED I am talking about. Wave iii of the ED, although it looks like it could be an 5 wave move, does not fit correctly as wave 3 is the shortest. This gives merit to the possibility that this count is correct. I will be taking a short position from right above the former resistance line, at 93.90, which is also just beneath where wave i of the ED will be equal to wave v of the ED, and also where a of v of the ED is equal to c of v of the ED. I will be keeping my stop at 94.50, and moving it to protect my profit on a move back down beneath 93.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
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