NZD/USD Daily Charts

Here are two daily chart possibilities for the NZD/USD. This first one is my primary count, based solely on the Diagonal pictures counting better as a Leading Diagonal (5-3-5-3-5) rather than as an Ending Diagonal (3-3-3-3-3) as per the chart below. It is also possible that the LD wave 1 is an A, the 2 is a B of a more complex double or triple 3 correction, and we will continue to hold the daily range for some time to come. This alternate to my chart does not sit well with my fundamental based expectations for a large decline in the US economy coming into 2011 however, so I do not believe it is likely. I expect the relationship between the US and it's "safe haven" status will continue to deteriorate into the coming months and years, and we will see a decline in the US Dollar as the next wave of global economic decline sweeps across the globe.

Here is my other count for the NZD/USD. If this count is correct it is likely we will retrace the entire length of the Ending Diagonal C of X all the way back to 0.66. This downside move will likely take up a bit more time than the correlatory one in the chart above, however in a similar way I expect that once it reverses to the upside it will do so sharply and impulsively. In both of these two counts, expect the coming move to the downside to be choppy in nature as the moves are both corrective and not impulsive. I think selling this pair in the short term is a possible option but would not suggest getting short unless prices were to retrace to the 0.715 level. In my opinion there are better trading opportunities around at the moment.

SPX Ending Diagonal Possibilities

Here is my bearish SPX Ending Diagonal count. In this count the market has already topped out and completed green wave 2 (see my last post for a daily chart of my longer term count). Although it is hard to make out on a 4 hour chart, there is a possible Leading Diagonal down from last weeks top, and we have reversed sharply in a wave 2 which is a common occurrence after an LD. We will know very early in the week whether or not this count is correct, and while I am hopeful it is, I think it is more likely we push up one more time before reversing as per my next count.

Here is my other Ending Diagonal count, which is bullish in the short term. As you can see price bounced hard off the lower trend line support during Fridays session, and we may see some follow through on Monday in the form of a throw-over fifth wave. If this is the case I would suggest taking short positions from the 1140 level which should offer strong resistance. I do not expect price to break much above 1150 however if it does I will have to revise my longer term count as this will most likely invalidate my ED counts.

SPX Looks close to Topping

This is my current favoured SPX count showing an Ending Diagonal nearing completion. I am expecting price to rollover on a spike up above 1120 from where it will drop sharply in a wave 3. 1035 which has held price in the past should do so once again, although I will be placing my stop at 1180 to be safe. As I have mentioned several times in the past I am very bearish on the US economy and expect the bear trend to continue very soon. I have attempted unsuccessfully to get short with a small stop several times over the last month in anticipation of top, however we have now retraced to a level where I think it is worthwhile taking a short with a larger stop. I agree with the longer term views of Prechter and Gerald Celente and believe we very near to a wave 2 top.

As you can see on the chart to the left (showing a 4 hour zoom of the C wave ED from the chart above) there is clear divergence in the RSI, and price is once again nearing overbought levels. I expect this final thrust up in price (whether it makes a new high or fails) will not make a new high in the RSI showing more bearish divergence. I will be looking to short at 1125 with a 1180 stop. If price fails before reaching that point I will take a short on a break through the bottom upward trending ED support line. As I have mentioned in the past, this is a medium to long term hold position with a great risk to reward. Price is expected to fall beneath 670 in the long term.

GBP/USD Keeps Pushing Higher

Cable just keeps on going! Here is a 4 hour chart of the trend lines I've been watching. If price continues higher into the top resistance zone I think it will make a good short with a stop at 1.59. 1.58 has been important support and resistance several times in the past so it will make a good entry point.

I got out of my SPX short just now as the pattern down from the top looks corrective. I now think risk is likely to edge slowly higher for the remainder of the week until the US GDP data comes out on Friday, which I expect will be dismal.  I will be watching the markets closely then for a top out in equities and likely a turn in risk across the board.

SPX Could be Completing an Ending Diagonal

Here is a possible Ending Diagonal count for the SPX. I have put in a black count showing the ED pretty much complete as I write this, and a red count with another possible wave up to come before a reversal. Either way a break of the bottom trend line should offer a good signal to get short with a stop above the previous high. If this move down complete as an ED it will be the C wave of a large zig-zag from 1007.4, and I expect that price will reverse sharply from the high as it begins falling in a large 3 of 3. I have just taken a short from the top trend line in anticipation for a collapse. Anyone who follows me knows I have been trying to get on at the top of this move for some time. More conservative traders may want to wait for a confirmed break of the bottom trend line before getting short.

GBP/USD Support Channel Continues to Hold

There is a really apparent upward trending support zone on the 4 hour which has continued to hold up the Pound. One again price has reversed sharply pushing higher against the USD. As this entire move looks corrective I am expecting price to eventually break through the bottom of the channel and make a new low. Until then it is not safe to get short unless we move to near the top of the channel or if the support zone has been decisively breached to the downside. Expect resistance just above 1.55 as this has held price in the past.

SPX About to Plummet?

Here is my primary 15 minute SPX count. While the whole move from the high could be counted as a correction it is also possible that we have already topped out and are heading lower from here. As you can see there are some extremely bearish looking candles beginning to show and I think fundamentally it is more likely that we will hear negative news over the weekend. In my chart you can see in my chart we have just begun a third of a third of a third which would explain the sudden sharp drop off in price, and also means this momentum is likely to carry on for the remainder of the session and into next week. I have just taken a short position with a stop at 1090. The target remains open but the expected risk to reward on this trade is massive.

SPX Showing Signs of Weakness

Here is my irregular flat count for the S&P 500. The reason I favour this count is because the wave I have labeled as black wave B fits perfectly as a 3 wave move, and looks awkward when labeled as an impulse which ever way the sub-waves are labeled. Wave 2 retracements are normally deep and sharp however this shallow flat is a warning sign of impending weakness. I expect the final wave of this correction (black C) will likely be a failure as well (not reach the end of black wave A), which is also be a sign of weakness. Once this correction is complete I expect a very hard and fast fall straight through the 1000 level. This will likely occur as levels of negative press about the US and it's imploding economy increase. If there is one trade I want to be in for the rest of this year it is short US equities.

NZD/USD Hourly Chart

Here is my latest NZD/USD count with what I am expecting from this pair over the coming weeks. There appears to be a reasonably clear 5 waves down from the triple top at 0.7155 and it appears as thought the pair has almost completed a flat correction from the low. I expect that price will encounter strong resistance at around the 0.6980 level, which is strong technical resistance and also very near the 50% Fibonacci level. Look to sell from this zone with a stop above the triple top. While this stop is over 100 pips away, if this count is correct and we are about to fall in a third wave the target is well over 400 pips away giving us a great risk to reward ratio.

SPX Head & Shoulder Reversal Pattern Complete

The SPX H&S Pattern that many of have been watching for some time has completed and the neckline has been broken. Price may drop hard from current levels in a large wave 3. While it is possible price may rally from here in a 2 of 3, I think it is more likely that the neckline will hold as resistance and price will fall hard and fast from here after a negligible pullback. I have taken a short from the neckline break. The H&S target is 860 however I think we will go much lower than that. Keep stops at 1050. There is currently a nice 5 waves down from 1048 on the 5 minute so we may pull back to the 1030/38 area before continuing lower.