As you would already know if you are a regular reader of my Blog, I am medium term bullish on the USD/JPY pair. In the above chart I have drawn the most bullish scenario, with the red X zigzag already complete and about to make a sharp move upwards. So far price has held near the 61.8% Fib of wave A. The move from 89.79 on the 5 minute chart counts as a clear 5 waves, and the retracement so far looks to be in 3 waves, however it is extremely deep, so confidence in this count is not high. It should become apparent very early in the Monday session if this count is valid or not. A break of 89.79 will invalidate.
In the chart below I have labeled the red X as a double zigzag. This means wave C of the second zigzag is still to come. A probably target for wave C is 88.50, which is very close to both the 100% extension of wave A of the second zigzag and the 100% extension of the first zigzag of the red X. If the above count is invalidated, 88.50 is where I will be looking to take more long positions in this pair. I will be away most of tomorrow and Tuesday, off celebrating Australia Day, so I probably won't be able to update the site through the day, but if price drops through 89.80, set buy orders to 88.50, with stops at 87.00.
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