Thursday, January 7, 2010

AUD/USD H&S Failure


Price has reverted further above the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern making a drop to 0.85 in the coming days unlikely. Above is a bearish chart with a possible 1-2-1-2 count, however with every passing day I increasingly question whether my call for a USD bottom may be premature. The strength of the rally against the US dollar over the past few days means it is probable that there will be one more high to come for the AUD against the Greenback. For the above chart to remain possible price must not exceed 93.23. Below is a bullish AUD/USD chart which is beginning to seem like the more probable outcome. Although the rally may extend further north, a pullback to the 61.8% Fib will be likely sometime soon, as a wave 2 of 5, so be cautious if placing longs at current levels.


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