AUD Looking strong. Could the US Dollar Bear still be in Control?

The AUD/USD has rallied sharply over the last fortnight in what looks to be an impulse wave. 5 waves up looks almost complete and coincides with the pair moving into an area or previous resistance. 0.9320 should not break too easily but if it does fold, 0.94 will be the next hurdle. I don't think it is very likely that this impulse wave will extend even though wave 3 < 1.618 x wave 1. Wave 5 = wave 3 at 0.9380. Look for a turn around there if 0.9320 gives way. I am not trading this pair at the moment but may consider getting long after a wave 2 pullback.

USD/JPY 15 Minute Chart

Here is a 15 minute chart showing the recent price action on the USD/JPY pair. My bias has changed and I now think the pair is likely to head higher due to the delta time limitations that I mentioned in my post a few days ago. Here is an update. Although it is possible that a flat forms, I now think price will likely fall just below 93 in a wave 4 and then head higher. Move your stops to the bottom of wave i down at 93.35 once price has fallen 25 or so pips below it to cover yourself.

USD/JPY Makes a New High

Above is a 4 Hour Chart of the USD/JPY pair. 4 waves up can clearly be seen, however wave 4 may or may not yet be complete. If wave 4 is complete, wave 5 will be equal to wave 1 at around 93.70. Below is the same chart but with wave 4 drawn in as an irregular flat. This is what I believe to be the more likely scenario at present due to the look of the recent price action on the hourly (see bottom chart) which looks likely to complete as a 3 wave move. Wave a of B will be equal to wave c of B at 93.60. Whichever scenario plays out, I believe selling this pair at around that region should be profitable. Keeps stops above 94 and move them to break even when price has fallen back to 93.

AUD/USD H&S Failure

Price has reverted further above the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern making a drop to 0.85 in the coming days unlikely. Above is a bearish chart with a possible 1-2-1-2 count, however with every passing day I increasingly question whether my call for a USD bottom may be premature. The strength of the rally against the US dollar over the past few days means it is probable that there will be one more high to come for the AUD against the Greenback. For the above chart to remain possible price must not exceed 93.23. Below is a bullish AUD/USD chart which is beginning to seem like the more probable outcome. Although the rally may extend further north, a pullback to the 61.8% Fib will be likely sometime soon, as a wave 2 of 5, so be cautious if placing longs at current levels.

USD/JPY 30 Minute Chart

Here is a 30 minute chart of what I believe is happening in the USD/JPY pair. As you can see there are a clear 5 waves down, and price has so far corrected to near the 50% Fibonacci level. I expect further downside to occur in a C wave soon and will be looking to short again at 92.45.

USD/JPY Trend Line Break

The USD/JPY pair has broken through support and looks like it may correct over the coming week. Cmellon's Delta count is also short term bearish on the pair: click here. I will be looking to short over the coming session on a small pullback to support with a stop above the recent high at 93.25.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

EUR/USD. A closeup of the consolidation.

NZD/USD Reaching Resistance Zone

The New Zealand dollar is currently just beneath a resistance line drawn from the top of the two most recent highs, and a zone (0.73-0.7370) which has acted as support/resistance a multitude of times over the last few months. This area of confluence will be considerably difficult for the currency pair to push through and I expect price to reverse from these levels.

EUR/USD 4 Hour Elliott Channel Chart

Here is a chart of the EUR/USD pair, with wave 5 labeled to have topped out at 1.5145, as opposed the the Ending Diagonal Count where wave 5 ended at 1.5142. This count seems to fit better with the way price has acted over the past month and as you can see from the above chart a clear Elliott Channel is forming. If this count is correct and price action remains bound by the channel then we should expect weakness in the Euro very soon, as price is almost touching channel resistance.

AUD/USD 4 Hour Chart

The AUD/USD pair has rallied above the 0.9015 level, thus invalidating the chart possibility I posted on December 28th. Here is the alternate count I proposed, where the currency pair may be forming an extremely bearish 1-2-1-2 formation. I have drawn in the Fibonacci levels above in blue. As you can see price action has almost reached the 61.8% level, which is right on 0.91. I expect some resistance at this level. The head and shoulders pattern we have been watching develop over the previous months is still valid, however with every push higher the likelihood of the pattern playing out as we have been hoping diminishes.