NZD/USD Daily Charts

Here are two daily chart possibilities for the NZD/USD. This first one is my primary count, based solely on the Diagonal pictures counting better as a Leading Diagonal (5-3-5-3-5) rather than as an Ending Diagonal (3-3-3-3-3) as per the chart below. It is also possible that the LD wave 1 is an A, the 2 is a B of a more complex double or triple 3 correction, and we will continue to hold the daily range for some time to come. This alternate to my chart does not sit well with my fundamental based expectations for a large decline in the US economy coming into 2011 however, so I do not believe it is likely. I expect the relationship between the US and it's "safe haven" status will continue to deteriorate into the coming months and years, and we will see a decline in the US Dollar as the next wave of global economic decline sweeps across the globe.

Here is my other count for the NZD/USD. If this count is correct it is likely we will retrace the entire length of the Ending Diagonal C of X all the way back to 0.66. This downside move will likely take up a bit more time than the correlatory one in the chart above, however in a similar way I expect that once it reverses to the upside it will do so sharply and impulsively. In both of these two counts, expect the coming move to the downside to be choppy in nature as the moves are both corrective and not impulsive. I think selling this pair in the short term is a possible option but would not suggest getting short unless prices were to retrace to the 0.715 level. In my opinion there are better trading opportunities around at the moment.

NZD/USD Hourly Chart

Here is my latest NZD/USD count with what I am expecting from this pair over the coming weeks. There appears to be a reasonably clear 5 waves down from the triple top at 0.7155 and it appears as thought the pair has almost completed a flat correction from the low. I expect that price will encounter strong resistance at around the 0.6980 level, which is strong technical resistance and also very near the 50% Fibonacci level. Look to sell from this zone with a stop above the triple top. While this stop is over 100 pips away, if this count is correct and we are about to fall in a third wave the target is well over 400 pips away giving us a great risk to reward ratio.

NZD/USD Daily Update

Recent bullish price action in the NZD/USD pair has forced me to review my count. On the daily chart the move from the 0.7635 high does not at all look like the beginning of a new motive wave. While it is possible that we have a large drawn out second wave that stretches from 0.7083 to 0.7326, I think this is unlikely the correct count and in the long term the Kiwi will eventually push back above 0.76 again. Medium term I am still bearish however and I expect that after the completion of this rally - which I have labeled as X - we will fall in another corrective ABC to the downside.

NZD/USD 4 Hour

The NZD/USD looks to be completing a very large complex flat correction from the May low. Price is nearing this month's high which should act as some resistance if we make above 0.69. I think it is more likely we rollover soon and head lower in an impulsive fashion. This move will likely coincide with a turn in equities and a shift in sentiment away from riskier markets. This pair has the most extreme sentiment reading of all the majors according the DailyFX data, which warns of an impending reversal. I think this pair offers a fairly good risk to reward from current levels with a stop just above the 50% Fib at 0.695.

NZD/USD Daily

Here is a daily of the NZD/USD pair. As you can see price has been struggling upwards in a very choppy fashion for the best part of three months. The pair has formed a vague corrective channel which I believe will continue to contain price until the next move down begins. I will be looking to short on a retest of channel resistance at 0.73. My stop will be at 0.7440 near the previous high.

NZD/USD 4 Hour Chart

 
 

Here is my take on the NZD/USD. The pair has been consolidating in a complex correction, range bound between 0.68 and 0.71 for several weeks now. The move down from the top at 0.7080 definitely does not look impulsive, so it is likely this correction still had yet to complete. I think the final Z leg will likely break above the recent high to test the 50% Fibonacci and possibly even the 61.8%. I will be looking to short from this area.

NZD/USD Reaching Resistance Zone

The New Zealand dollar is currently just beneath a resistance line drawn from the top of the two most recent highs, and a zone (0.73-0.7370) which has acted as support/resistance a multitude of times over the last few months. This area of confluence will be considerably difficult for the currency pair to push through and I expect price to reverse from these levels.

NZD/USD 2 Hour Charts

A few possible counts for the NZD/USD currency pair. 3 waves up (green A), and 3 waves down (green B) have me thinking a flat correction is forming. This is in line with my expectations for dollar weakness against the pound over the coming few days.

NZD/USD 4 Hour Bearish Counts

Here are several NZD/USD bearish counts. In the above chart a flat is playing out. If this count is correct price action will not exceed the previous top at 0.7635, but may come close forming a double top.

In my second chart above the corrective phase (wave 2) is already complete. If this chart is correct than price will soon fall off sharply in a wave 3 down. This is my favoured count and coincides with my AUD/USD chart which I will post up shortly.

New Possible NZD/USD Counts

Here are 2 new possible Kiwi counts. The retracement so far has been unusually shallow so it would not surprise me if the NZD were to bounce higher again in a double 3 complex correction. It is also possible that the consolidation is over and price is about to drop off rapidly. NZD weakness could have something to do with the unexpected increase in the New Zealand unemployment rate that was just announced: Click here to read more. Yesterday's Trade of the Day initiation price was not hit, and the count we were working off is no longer valid, and so we will no longer be looking to take that position.

Trade Idea of The Day

Long NZD/USD at 71.50
Stop Loss: 70.85
Target: 74.00

To be canceled if not initiated by 11 P.M. GMT + 10 Hours

NZD/USD Hourly Chart Update

Here are 2 examples of what is possibly in the making with the Kiwi. Either way I expect some USD weakness over the next session.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart Update

Looks like my skepticism of the USD bull move was well founded, and over the last session the US Dollar Index pulled back swiftly from its recent high. I've reviewed my charts and the 3 wave move that just didn't seem to fit in with anything can actually be taken as an ending diagonal. In the chart above I have labeled what I now think is going on in the pair. This fits in well with my AUD/USD and NZD/USD counts from yesterday which I still believe to be correct.

NZD/USD Hourly Chart Update

Kiwi Update. I expect the commodity currencies to be strong during the next session.

NZD/USD Hourly Chart

The Kiwi looks to have touched on and bounced perfectly off the 138.2% Fibonacci level, which, according to Robert Balan, is extremely common in irregular corrections.