USD/JPY 30 Minute Chart

The initial downside USD/JPY target after the completion of the Ending Diagonal (the point of origin of the ED) at 92.21 has been reached, however the fall did not maintain momentum and price has reversed in what seems to be a corrective manner. I believe the USD will push slightly higher to just over 93.00 before dropping southward once again. As you can see the 93.10 level is the fourth wave extreme of the smaller cycle and also the 61.8% Fib of the impulse down from the top. If this count is invalidated, risk on this trade is fairly limited as all stops for any short positions taken should be placed just near the recent high at 93.60.

USD/JPY Ending Diagonal 30 Minute Chart

Here is my 30 minute Ending Diagonal count for the USD/JPY pair. The pair may have topped out and completed a large correction at the recent high at 93.64. The series of 3 wave moves from 92.20 fits perfectly with an ED patten, so even if this correction isn't over and we are going to consolidate for longer, it is likely that price will fall to at least the 92.20 level as it is the norm for ED's to retrace to at least the level of their point of origin. I believe we are soon going to see an acceleration to the downside in a push well below the wave 1 low at 88. I have taken a short from 93.50 with a stop just above the high. If you are going to get in on this trade keep your stop at 93.65.

Another USD/JPY Possibility

Here is another possible count for the correction USD/JPY has been stuck in for most of this month. The move from 91.60 looks to be corrective so I think we are in for one more drop before a move upwards. I am going to attempt a small long position from around 91.40, with a 30 pip stop. Right now there are numerous possible counts for this pair, so if you are a conservative trader I would recommend staying away from it and focusing on something else. If equities drop off hard over the next few days as many people are expecting, USD/JPY will likely remain weak.

USD/JPY Hourly Chart Update

Here is an hourly USD/JPY count. As you can see recent price action has remained range bound between former resistance at 93.77 and the 38.2% Fibonacci of the previous move up. I am expecting a break from this wedge over the coming session. If price does break higher from these levels it will indicate a very weak Yen, as neither the 2nd nor the 4th waves (green) will have retraced a substantial percentage of the previous wave. I have a buy order set at 93.00 and am keeping my stops at 91.1. Initial target will be 95.5.

USD/JPY 5 Minute Chart

USD/JPY has moved from the low at 92.83 in an impulsive manner. Price only just missed my long position order at 92.70, however I believe the current wave 2 pullback offers a good opportunity to get in on the trade. I am going to attempt a long from 93.2, based on this chart. My stop loss will be just beneath the low at 92.80 so risk is minimal. Target is 95.50.

USD/JPY Still Correcting

Here is a 15 Minute Chart of the USD/JPY correction so far. The move down from the top at 94.80 is clearly corrective, however this red ABC which is about to complete may just be the three waves of an A of a large flat or a triangle still to play out. Either way I am going to get out of my short position at 92.70, or if price reverses hard and my target is not hit, at 93.75. I am going to attempt to buy back in at around 92.70 or after a clear 5 wave move down from the black 4. Keep you stops at 91, targeting 95.50.

Game On USD/JPY!

Here is my updated count of USD/JPY. A spike on the NFP release has pushed the pair above 94 in what I believe is one final thrust before a sizable correction. Even if my longer term count is incorrect price is likely to fall to at least 92.5 from these levels. Below is a daily chart going back to 2003 showing RSI readings. As you can see RSI has never manager to make it above 80 for more than a few minutes and we are at those levels as I write this. I am taking a short position here against 95.5 with a minimum target or 93. Move stops to protect profit on a move back below 94.

USD/JPY Update

Here is an updated USD/JPY chart. I have modified the count slightly to fit in better with the unfolding pattern. I think the pair has topped or is very near to topping, and have taken a short position with a stop at 94.5. I will be moving my stop loss to break even on a move down past 93.

USD/JPY Nearing Former Resistance

Here is my daily USD/JPY count. I think the pair is about to turn downwards in the final wave of an X correction. Daily RSI is well overbought and there are also multiple divergences on smaller time frames. The pair's recent move upwards was sharp and fast, a trait which is common before ending diagonals are formed, and even if my longer term count is incorrect, the pair is due for a pullback very soon. I expect price to slightly breach former resistance at 93.77 before pulling back to at least 92.2 but probably much further.

Here is an hourly chart showing the ED I am talking about. Wave iii of the ED, although it looks like it could be an 5 wave move, does not fit correctly as wave 3 is the shortest. This gives merit to the possibility that this count is correct. I will be taking a short position from right above the former resistance line, at 93.90, which is also just beneath where wave i of the ED will be equal to wave v of the ED, and also where a of v of the ED is equal to c of v of the ED. I will be keeping my stop at 94.50, and moving it to protect my profit on a move back down beneath 93.

USD/JPY 4 Hour Update

Here is a 4 Hour Chart of my USD/JPY count. I think there will likely be one more push higher to complete an Ending Diagonal c of B of the triple 3 correction before a final C leg begins. As I have mentioned in previous postings, expect resistance from the downward sloping trend line off the two recent highs. 91.60 is also the 61.8% Fib of the entire consolidative drop from 93.77.

USD/JPY Facing Strong Resistance at 91.30

The USD/JPY is coming up to a very strong resistance area around 91.30. This area has provided solid resistance in the past (3/2) and is also near the downward sloping trend line drawn off the two highs from 7/1 and 19/2. A double zig-zag  from 88.14 appears to be forming, and C of the second zig-zag will equal A at 91.36. I think a short from this area makes a reasonably safe trade. I will be  looking to short from 91.30 and keeping my stop at 92.2.

USD/JPY 15 Minute Chart

 

Here is a 15 Minute Chart of the USD/JPY pair, showing two very clear impulses up so far with another likely to come to form an impulse of a higher degree. I will be looking to get long at 89.80 with my stop at the wave 1 extreme at 89.25. 91 will be my first target, but if the wave looks likely to extend this will need to be revised.

USD/JPY 15 Minute Chart

 

Here is what I think is going on in USD/JPY. The sharp drop the broke through support has the look of a third of a third wave, so some follow through is likely. The black wave 2 retracement was extremely shallow, so I expect a larger correction from black wave 4, which is completing as I write this. Wave 3 is approximately equal to 1.618 x wave 1. I would not be surprised if the former trend line support is re-tested. I will be looking to take a short position near this line at 90.50, with a stop at 91.05. Target is still yet to be determined.

USD/JPY Sitting at Support

 

The 61.8% Fibonacci of the last drop has so far held back the USD retracement and the pair is once again testing the support line which has held the pair for the last 2 weeks. Expect some momentum if price manages to break through the line. If you are not short already look to do so on a pullback after a breakout of the consolidation zone.

USD/JPY Update

 

Here is a chart of the USD/JPY showing Fibonacci levels and wedged shaped, seemingly corrective price action. The chart below shows a zoom of the last few sessions. You can see price looks to be carving out a 5 wave move, which I expect will be a C leg and probably the final move in this correction before price drops further. As you can see the resistance line runs very close to the 61.8% Fib level. I will be looking to short from around this area with a stop at 91.30.

USD/JPY Update

 

The X of the expected double zig-zag correction in USD/JPY is nearing completion. I expect price to fall further over the coming week and reverse sharply from around the 88/88.20 area. If price does breach this zone and the down trending support line expect further resistance at around 87.40-87.60 which is both former support and former resistance.

USD/JPY Breakdown

 

USD/JPY has dropped sharply in what appears to be a sharp Z leg of an X. I am expecting another zigzag to push higher once this drop has completed, which I am expecting at around the 61.8% Fib of the entire move at around 88.20. Look to get long from here.

USD/JPY WTF?

 

While I remain bullish on the USD against the Yen, recent price action in the pair has me confused. The rally from 84.80 to 93.80 is an obvious ABC, and the move down to 89.15 looks like a complete X (WXY), but the price action since 89.15 does not look like a motive way of any sort (either an impulse or a leading diagonal). Even though I was hoping, and somewhat expecting for price to skyrocket from these levels in line with the Cmellon's Delta Count, it seems more likely that another low will form before price head further upward. My trade was stopped out at break-even. I am going to take a short position on a break of the rising trend line support. Stay tuned for updates.

USD/JPY Consolidation Still in Play

 

Here is a possible scenario for USD/JPY (15 Minute Chart). Unfortunately the pair did not confirm the breakout as I was hoping and has since dropped back to the 90.40 area. There is a fair amount of support at the 90.20 area from an upwards trending support line. a downward sloping resistance turned support line and also the 38.2% Fibonacci of the entire move up from 89.15. USD Bulls should look to increase their long exposure at this level if the patten plays out as predicted.

USD/JPY Breakout

The pair has surged higher on positive ISM Survey data and looks to be about to break above the downward sloping resistance line. I have taken a long position again at 90.65.