SPX Daily Count

Apologies for my lack of posts lately. I have been extremely tied up with work and haven't had time to trade, let alone do up charts. I hope you all have been having some luck trading these markets. My risk averse bias as shown in my last several posts has proven to be incorrect as risk appetite has been increasing for far longer than I predicted. I still remain bearish on equities however and sentiment is once again reaching an extreme (see Prechter's latest interview here). In the SPX price is coming up against solid trend and shoulder line resistance, and I do not foresee a push up through the May 13 retracement at 1177 before a reversal. We may have already turned but if not I believe we are very close. I have just taken a short postiton at 1138 with a stop at 1180.

Bearish SPX Hourly Chart

My daily count seems to be holding up well and I think we are ready to drop. Momentum so far hasn't been strong, but I am still confident that we are heading lower, and have just taken another short position based on this count. As you can see, the move I have labeled and red wave 2 is a flat, and retraced less than 50% of the preceding wave 1. This signifies weakness, which has also been shown through the minimal retracements in the last few weeks when other risky markets bounced much harder. I am moving my stop loss on my previous short to 1064 because if this is a 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd we should start to gain momentum very soon and since this wave is expected to extend a long way, it is unlikely we will retrace much from here. If we do push back up above 1064 I will have to review my count.

SPX Ending Diagonal Possibilities

Here is my bearish SPX Ending Diagonal count. In this count the market has already topped out and completed green wave 2 (see my last post for a daily chart of my longer term count). Although it is hard to make out on a 4 hour chart, there is a possible Leading Diagonal down from last weeks top, and we have reversed sharply in a wave 2 which is a common occurrence after an LD. We will know very early in the week whether or not this count is correct, and while I am hopeful it is, I think it is more likely we push up one more time before reversing as per my next count.

Here is my other Ending Diagonal count, which is bullish in the short term. As you can see price bounced hard off the lower trend line support during Fridays session, and we may see some follow through on Monday in the form of a throw-over fifth wave. If this is the case I would suggest taking short positions from the 1140 level which should offer strong resistance. I do not expect price to break much above 1150 however if it does I will have to revise my longer term count as this will most likely invalidate my ED counts.

SPX Looks close to Topping

This is my current favoured SPX count showing an Ending Diagonal nearing completion. I am expecting price to rollover on a spike up above 1120 from where it will drop sharply in a wave 3. 1035 which has held price in the past should do so once again, although I will be placing my stop at 1180 to be safe. As I have mentioned several times in the past I am very bearish on the US economy and expect the bear trend to continue very soon. I have attempted unsuccessfully to get short with a small stop several times over the last month in anticipation of top, however we have now retraced to a level where I think it is worthwhile taking a short with a larger stop. I agree with the longer term views of Prechter and Gerald Celente and believe we very near to a wave 2 top.

As you can see on the chart to the left (showing a 4 hour zoom of the C wave ED from the chart above) there is clear divergence in the RSI, and price is once again nearing overbought levels. I expect this final thrust up in price (whether it makes a new high or fails) will not make a new high in the RSI showing more bearish divergence. I will be looking to short at 1125 with a 1180 stop. If price fails before reaching that point I will take a short on a break through the bottom upward trending ED support line. As I have mentioned in the past, this is a medium to long term hold position with a great risk to reward. Price is expected to fall beneath 670 in the long term.

SPX Could be Completing an Ending Diagonal

Here is a possible Ending Diagonal count for the SPX. I have put in a black count showing the ED pretty much complete as I write this, and a red count with another possible wave up to come before a reversal. Either way a break of the bottom trend line should offer a good signal to get short with a stop above the previous high. If this move down complete as an ED it will be the C wave of a large zig-zag from 1007.4, and I expect that price will reverse sharply from the high as it begins falling in a large 3 of 3. I have just taken a short from the top trend line in anticipation for a collapse. Anyone who follows me knows I have been trying to get on at the top of this move for some time. More conservative traders may want to wait for a confirmed break of the bottom trend line before getting short.

SPX About to Plummet?

Here is my primary 15 minute SPX count. While the whole move from the high could be counted as a correction it is also possible that we have already topped out and are heading lower from here. As you can see there are some extremely bearish looking candles beginning to show and I think fundamentally it is more likely that we will hear negative news over the weekend. In my chart you can see in my chart we have just begun a third of a third of a third which would explain the sudden sharp drop off in price, and also means this momentum is likely to carry on for the remainder of the session and into next week. I have just taken a short position with a stop at 1090. The target remains open but the expected risk to reward on this trade is massive.

SPX Showing Signs of Weakness

Here is my irregular flat count for the S&P 500. The reason I favour this count is because the wave I have labeled as black wave B fits perfectly as a 3 wave move, and looks awkward when labeled as an impulse which ever way the sub-waves are labeled. Wave 2 retracements are normally deep and sharp however this shallow flat is a warning sign of impending weakness. I expect the final wave of this correction (black C) will likely be a failure as well (not reach the end of black wave A), which is also be a sign of weakness. Once this correction is complete I expect a very hard and fast fall straight through the 1000 level. This will likely occur as levels of negative press about the US and it's imploding economy increase. If there is one trade I want to be in for the rest of this year it is short US equities.

SPX Head & Shoulder Reversal Pattern Complete

The SPX H&S Pattern that many of have been watching for some time has completed and the neckline has been broken. Price may drop hard from current levels in a large wave 3. While it is possible price may rally from here in a 2 of 3, I think it is more likely that the neckline will hold as resistance and price will fall hard and fast from here after a negligible pullback. I have taken a short from the neckline break. The H&S target is 860 however I think we will go much lower than that. Keep stops at 1050. There is currently a nice 5 waves down from 1048 on the 5 minute so we may pull back to the 1030/38 area before continuing lower.

SPX Analysis

Here is my 4 hour SPX count. I think we have either just begun the red wave 3 down from the 1108 high or are still correcting in a large complex wave 2 of the same cycle. So far price has been twice rejected at the 38.2% Fibonacci of the entire move down from this year's high. While I am very bearish long term - click here to see a very informative video on Supercycle Theory and how it will affect you over the next few years - it is still possible that equities will remain range bound for several more days, or maybe even weeks, before breaking to new lows.

This chart is a 15 minute close up of the last move down from the 1108 high. I believe the move is either a 1 of the large, red wave 3, or a C wave of an X wave and we are still correcting in the large red wave 2. Either way it looks very obvious to me that the move ended with an ending diagonal. This means that price will almost certainly retrace to the point of origin of the ED before moving lower. Based on this I am going to take a small long position from here with my stop at the recent low. My initial target is 1071, however if my alternate scenario plays out and we are still in the red wave 2 price will move much higher, and likely test the 1105 level again.

SPX Fibonacci Confluence Zone at 1155

The SPX looks to have put in a complete 5 waves down from the high at 1176 and is pulling back sharply in standard wave 2 fashion. There is a very important confluence of Fibonacci levels at the 1155/1158 zone which is the 61.8% retracement of the entire drop from the 1220 top, and the 61.8% of last weeks high. If price retraces this far I think this will be an excellent area to get short. Keep your stops at 1177.

SPX Elliott Wave Video Analysis

Roy, the Elliott Wave Practitioner, has just released a short video analysis of the SPX. Shorting from near current levels offers an excellent opportunity for a long term trade with the possibility of a great risk to reward. Click on the link to left of the screen to see this latest video. I will also be doing a shorter terms SPX analysis later today as I have noticed a very important Fibonacci confluence zone on the 1 hour if we retrace from current levels in a second wave from the top at 1176.

SPX Wave 2 Looks to have Topped

Well my Ending Diagonal scenario didn't play out and now that the parallel channel from the SPX highs has been breached to the downside my bias has changed. So far we have had a clear 5 waves down from the top. This could be a complete impulse and a retracement is about to occur, or it could be a far more bearish 1-2, 1-2 scenario. I tend to favour the latter as I expect this fall the be fast and hard. Look to get short on a pullback, this overstretched market has a long way to fall from here.

SPX Update

Here is my latest SPX chart. It looks fairly obvious to me that the SPX is forming an Ending Diagonal. The moves from the bottom of wave 4 struggle to be defined by any other patterns. In line with this count I expect an increase in risk appetite over the coming session, before a reversal and sharp fall later in the US session. I have sold out of my previous short from 1160 at break even and will look to re-enter again at around 1180. This is a very long term trade and the risk to reward expected on it is excellent. Because I expect equities to top out here and plummet for months a set target cannot yet be defined as yet. Keep risk at 1220 if you can or at least at 1195, just above downward sloping resistance if you want to keep risk tight.

Covering My Short Positions

It is 7.40 a.m. GMT and I have decided to take profit of my EUR/USD, AUD/JPY and SPX trades due to the lack of clarity on smaller time frame counts and some very bullish looking signals in the aforementioned and some other correlative markets. If you have been following my trades and want to keep up to date with my intraday movements I post live update throughout the day via my Twitter account. I will be looking to re-enter all these positions from a higher level and will post updated charts (if previous counts are invalidated or begin to seem improbable) and orders when opportunities occur. Good luck!

SPX 30 Minute Chart Update

Here is an update of my SPX count. The retrace from the low is sufficient in size to assume that is it a larger cycle 1-2 rather than a 3-4 as I previously thought. I am expecting one final push above 1165 to complete this correction from where I will be looking to take a short position on the completion of the wave 5 (v) of C. At present we may be nearing completion of a wave 2 of 5 (v) or we may still be in a wave 4 (iv) of C. I have marked the Fibonacci rations with wave 1 = wave 5 for both possibilities. If we move to below 1130 without first pushing up in a final motive wave this count will be invalidated. Look to get short from around 1180 with a stop at 1210. This is a medium term hold position which offers a great risk to reward. For more info see Roy's latest video on the SPX.

SPX500 Hourly

Here is my hourly SPX chart. I think we are currently reversing in a wave C of 4 and will test above 1140 before turning bearish again. Not much else to say on this one except I am very bearish long term on equities from this point. I will be looking to get short again at around 1150/1160 with my stop at the wave 1 low of 1180.

SPX Head and Shoulders Neckline Breach

Looks like we're finally getting some action. There were big moves in several markets overnight, gold has fallen sharply and looks to have topped out for a while at least. Here is a head and shoulders pattern which has formed on the SPX and as you can see the neckline has been breached. I am going to get short on a retest of this line with a minimum target of 1142. Although I will likely hold for much longer than that as this may be the top in this market we have all been waiting for.

SPX Video Analysis

Roy has just sent me a link to a short video analysis he has done on the SPX. Click here to see it.

SPX 500 Updated

I think the SPX500 is going to reverse where wave C = 61.8% of wave A at around 1076, just beyond the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the whole drop.

SPX 500 Hourly Chart Update

Here is an update of my SPX chart from yesterday with the most correct trend line left drawn in. Looks to be a pretty accurate representation of what is going on so far. Looking for a spate of weakness over the next session, which will hopefully coincide with my expected downside on the GBP/USD and EUR/USD.