GBP/USD Keeps Pushing Higher

Cable just keeps on going! Here is a 4 hour chart of the trend lines I've been watching. If price continues higher into the top resistance zone I think it will make a good short with a stop at 1.59. 1.58 has been important support and resistance several times in the past so it will make a good entry point.

I got out of my SPX short just now as the pattern down from the top looks corrective. I now think risk is likely to edge slowly higher for the remainder of the week until the US GDP data comes out on Friday, which I expect will be dismal.  I will be watching the markets closely then for a top out in equities and likely a turn in risk across the board.

GBP/USD Support Channel Continues to Hold

There is a really apparent upward trending support zone on the 4 hour which has continued to hold up the Pound. One again price has reversed sharply pushing higher against the USD. As this entire move looks corrective I am expecting price to eventually break through the bottom of the channel and make a new low. Until then it is not safe to get short unless we move to near the top of the channel or if the support zone has been decisively breached to the downside. Expect resistance just above 1.55 as this has held price in the past.

GBP/USD Update

The GBP/USD pair gapped down significantly on open today, probably due to fears about the Volcano in Iceland and the long term effects it could have on the UK economy. I think the the top is likely in for wave 4 and we will continue down with the longer term trend from here on. It is fairly likely that the gap will close, and the pair may be forming a leading diagonal from the top at 1.5524 so a pullback is likely. Take this opportunity to get short with a stop above the recent high. Risk:Reward here is good as our target is below 1.46.

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Here is my long term chart for the GBP/USD pair. I think the move down from 2.04 (not shown) is a completed impulse down, and we are now correcting in a large ABC. As you can see the B leg of this move is not yet complete, and I expect a small push higher over the coming week to complete wave 4 before a sharp decline begins to complete the C leg of red wave B. This move will likely take several months.

GBP/USD Update

Here is an updated GBP/USD chart. I think the pair is forming an Ending Diagonal C wave to complete this correction. I got out of my short from 1.5075 at break even and will look to re-enter higher at around 1.5105.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart

Here is an Hourly of my GBP/USD count. I think the pair completed its corrective phase at 1.5196 and is currently carving out a wave 2 before price drops lower. I think the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of this move at 1.5075 will be a good place to get short. Keep your stops at 1.52.

GBP/USD

Moving my stop loss to break even on this trade. If price breaks back above 1.57 the triangle scenario I expect may be incorrect, and I don't want to allow my profit to turn into a loss.

GBP/USD Wedge

 

The GBP/USD pair is forming a solid wedge pattern, with an eventual break to the downside expected. I am going to attempt a short from the top of the wedge at 1.5710 with a stop above 1.5750. More conservative traders may want to wait for a breakout below support before going short.

GBP/USD Head and Shoulders

This 4 hour chart of the GBP/USD pair shows a clear head and shoulders reversal pattern. The neckline has been decisively broken. A measured target from the neckline break is just below 1.57. Keep stops just above the neckline at 1.63, however price will preferably stay beneath the downward sloping trend channel pictured.  I have added to my short positions today at 1.602.

GBP/USD Range Break

The GBP/USD pair had been trading within a clearly defined range for over a week, but has recently broken to the downside. Price has since pulled back to retest support, which looks to be a good shorting opportunity with further downside expected. Look to sell at 1.624 with a stop above former resistance at 1.638.

GBP/USD Range 30 Minute Chart

The GBP/USD pair looks to be trading within a clearly defined 160 pip range (1.618 - 1.632). Look to sell near the top and buy near the bottom. My bias for an eventual break has switched the downside so holding on to your shorts may pay off once the range breaks. 

GBP/USD Support Holding

This is just a rehash of a post I made the other day. Although Trend Line Support was breached and I was stopped out of my long trade the the GBP/USD pair, price has bounce back from just beyond the support lines and I am going to attempt to long again with a stop loss beneath the recent low.  Cmellon's Delta Trading charts http://cmellon-deltatrading.blogspot.com/ also point to some Pound strength over the coming days. 1.66 is the target.

AUD/USD Trade Idea

Following on from yesterdays chart, here is an hourly view of the AUD/USD pair. This looks like it could be a very rewarding short in the very near future. Below is a 15 minute zoom of the A-B-C correction above. I have labeled it as an A-B-C in the above chart for simplicities sake, however in the 15 minute chart I go into more detail. There are two possible counts below labeling wave C above. One is in black and one is in green. If the black count is correct, it is possible that it is complete. This will be confirmed if price breaches 0.91 without making a newer high. Look to short at 0.922 with a stop above 0.9325, or on a break of 0.91 if 0.92 is not hit.

I am exiting both my GBP/USD and AUD/USD long positions now. The AUD/USD because I have a count that says the pair may have topped already, and the GBP/USD, which has performed very poorly, because it is coming up to resistance and looks weak.

GBP/USD Trade Idea

Price looks to have bounced from near a junction of two strong support lines at around 1.6250. I will be looking to long with a stop just beneath the support line, targeting 1.6530, the 61.8% Fibonacci of the five wave down move. As you can see in the 30 minute chart below, wave 3 has extended (is greater than 1.618 times the length of by price) so it is unlikely wave 5 will continue before a considerable pullback, unless of course this count is proven invalid.

SPX 500 Hourly Chart Update

Here is an update of my SPX chart from yesterday with the most correct trend line left drawn in. Looks to be a pretty accurate representation of what is going on so far. Looking for a spate of weakness over the next session, which will hopefully coincide with my expected downside on the GBP/USD and EUR/USD.

Trade Idea of the Day (Update)

Looks like the impulse down was not complete and has extended further. I have updated the chart to show what I think is going on now. Still waiting for a Fibonacci pullback to short the pair.

I think the GBP is due for a spate of weakness. This coincides with my current trade long in the EUR/GBP. Cable has been confined to a clearly defined range, and is at present very close to the top of it. A short from near here offers a good risk/reward ratio.

Short GBP/USD at 1.655

Stop Loss: 1.664
Target: 1.630

Edited 6.20 P.M. GMT + 10 Hours

GBP/USD Hourly Chart

Cable looks to be trading within a well defined range. Look to sell near the top and buy near the bottom.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart

Here is a chart showing a very important support/resistance line drawn from the lows from the 8th of July and the 1st of September. It has been important for the GBP/USD pair on many occasions and I expect that when price breaks through it, it will be swift. The line is currently sitting at around 1.626.

GBP/USD 15 Minute Chart

Although this is not my favoured count, it is a possibility. If the 5 waves up reached around 1.66, the second A-B-C (Y) would be 161.8% of the first A-B-C (W)