CAD/JPY Charts

The CAD/JPY 4 Hour Chart looks almost identical to the AUD/JPY that I posted a few days ago. An impulse up looks to be nearing completion in a C wave. I expect another high before we break sharply lower. RSI is divergent across all time frames, however wave count suggests this move up is not yet complete. As the move from 86.95-88.73 looks to be in 3 waves, there are two scenarios I think are most likely. Below are 15 minute examples of these.

Above is my favoured count. It is possible that CAD/JPY (and likely AUD/JPY also) is forming and Ending Diagonal, in which price will move up and down jaggedly until a top forms, probably around 89.60.

Below is another possibility. Due the the 3 wave nature of the move from 86.95, it is possible that wave 4 is not yet finished, and a 5 wave move down to complete the wave is needed before further upside action occurs. If this is correct, I expect wave 5 to complete just above 89.

USD/JPY 15 Minute Chart

 

Here is a 15 Minute Chart of the USD/JPY pair, showing two very clear impulses up so far with another likely to come to form an impulse of a higher degree. I will be looking to get long at 89.80 with my stop at the wave 1 extreme at 89.25. 91 will be my first target, but if the wave looks likely to extend this will need to be revised.

AUD/JPY 4 Hour Chart

 

There has been a lot of speculation recently on risk aversion returning to the markets with a big fall in commodity currencies against the Yen. However following the NFP release this evening (I am in Australia) there has been a sizable increase in risk appetite. This has led to strength in the AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY (another pair many Elliotticians have been focusing on of late). Above is my 4 hour chart of the AUD/JPY pair. I think there is still more upside to come (similar to the CAD/JPY) before a major reversal. I will be watching for a clear 5 wave move up before I look to get short. 

Below is a close up of the B wave down which several people seem to count as a 5 wave move.

 

EUR/USD Double Zig-zag

 

This is my current view of the EUR/USD pair. I think a double zig-zag is forming, primarily because the price action of the beginning of the wave I have labeled as X does not look impulsive, even on a minute scale, so I think there is another downside corrective move to come, most likely another zig-zag, which should take the pair closer to the 61.8% Fib where I will be looking to buy.

The EUR/USD has bottomed

 

The EUR/USD looks to have bottomed at 1.3435. I was completely expecting another low and tried several times to get short but to no avail. I lost out repeatedly trying to pick a top that never even eventuated. Two things I can learn from this experience:

1. Don't get too attached to any single count. There are always bullish and bearish counts, and it is important to always be aware that either could eventuate.

2. Don't over trade. Making multiple small risky trades in the hope of catching the turn is just stupid. If I'm going to take risks like that I may as well go to the Casino. Boredom is no excuse. 

I am setting myself a limit of 3 trades per day from now on until I learn better trading habits. I am going to set my orders and stop losses and try and walk away. I'm not a scalper nor do I aspire to be one. I am ideally chasing trades that last over several days and net 100-500 pips.

Enough about that anyways, here is my EUR/USD count for now. The range I spoke about last night has broken to the upside, and I expect another wave up before a Fib pullback. I have drawn the Elliott Channel and some levels based on Fibonacci ratios where I think the pair might reach before rebounding. I am not going to try and scalp from here because it is possible that the 5 waves up is already complete. For Jamie Saettele's video with his take on the pair click here.

My trade plan is to wait for a significant pullback, be it from the current high, or after another move up, and to buy at the 61.8% retracement. If my prediction in the above chart is correct I will be looking to buy at 1.3570 with my stop at 1.3440.

Range Bound EUR/USD

 

Trying to work out the direction of the EUR/USD based on EWT has been painful for me recently, so I am going to ignore any more counts until this consolidation is over, and focus on some simple technical analysis. As you can see from the above chart the pair is in sitting in a clearly defined range between 1.345 and 1.368. At present price is nearing the top of the range, and RSI on the hourly is nearing overbought levels. The long term overall trend is down. All these things point to future weakness in the Euro, so I am going to attempt to range trade this pair by shorting at the top of the range, with my stop just above it.

A Different EUR/USD ED Count

 

Here is another possible EUR/USD Ending Diagonal count. For this count to remain valid price should not exceed 1.3690. Price falling beneath 1.36 will be a very bearish indicator in the short term and I will be taking a short position if this occurs, however if price pushes above 1.37 it is likely the ED is complete and we should wait for a pullback to get long against the low at 1.3440. 

USDX Ending Diagonal Update

 

The USDX may still be completing a B leg of its fifth wave. For this count to stay valid however a sharp move upwards will need to occur very soon, probably within the next session. Price will ideally stay above 8015, and because wave 1 is greater than wave 3 by price, wave 5 needs to be shorter, so wave 5 should not push above 8210.

EUR/USD Update

 

I have been examining the wave count in the USDX and current price action doesn't fit with the count I just posted in the EUR/USD. I have reviewed my charts and I now think we may still be in a C leg of the final B wave with the final C down still yet to begin. I am now sitting out until I see a 5 wave move down to complete the 5th wave of the ED from which point I will be getting long.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart ED

 

My EUR/USD count is inversely similar to my USDX Ending Diagonal Count, however the final C of the ED in the E/U is much more clear than the its parallel in the USDX. The recent spike down to 1.3435 has been met with strong resistance and an ending diagonal may be complete. I think it is more likely however that this was just a wave 4 and there will be one more sharp spike down followed by an even quicker reversal to complete the ED. If my count is correct there will likely be a sharp retracement over the coming weeks to the near the origin of the diagonal, around 1.458. Look to get long just below 1.34 or on a push above 1.352.