EUR/GBP Break Out!

EUR/GBP has just broken out from the wedge it has been consolidating in for the past several months, and also broken through its uptrend channel support which has been in play for several years. Wait for a pullback to resistance at around 0.888 and look to go short with a stop at 0.904. This is likely going to be a medium term hold.

EUR/USD Bearish 5 Minute Chart

Here is an update of my bearish EUR/USD count. Support at 1.441 is where the drop from 1.452 is approximately equal (by price) to the previous 2 drops down shown in the chart from 1.458 and 1.4556. This may not be significant, however Elliott Waves are often Fibonacci ratios of each other, 1:1 being one of them. This is my favoured count at present and I expect further downside. I have moved my stops to 1.4447 (the bottom of wave i) as it is important to protect profits in these choppy conditions, and a break back above 1.4447 negates this count.

*** EDIT *** Sorry a break about 1.4492 negates this count, not 1.4447. Although I was stopped out of my short trade with +93 pips, my bias is still to the downside and I will look to get short again on a pullback or a break back below 1.4410.

EUR/USD 15 Minute Chart Bullish View

Here is a bullish 15 minute count for the EUR/USD pair. There may be another impulse wave up coming to complete the 5 waves up from 1.4265. A break back below 1.4473 negates this count and puts the focus back on a bearish count.

*** EDIT *** This count has just been invalidated. Stay short on this pair.

EUR/GBP Wedge Breakout Imminent

The EUR/GBP price action is contained by clearly defined, converging support and resistance lines. Keep an eye out for a break in either direction, then look to buy on a pullback to the resistance line. Keep your stop loss on the other side of the wedge and move to break-even once price has moved sufficiently away for your order price. I have no current directional bias on this pair and am equally as happy for it to break to either side.

AUD/USD 15 Minute Chart

Here is my interpretation of the corrective price action we have been seeing lately in the AUD/USD pair. I think a flat is almost complete and we will be seeing some USD strength over the coming session. As you can see wave 5 of c of B is almost reaching the point where it will be equal to wave 1 of c of B.

EUR/USD 5 Minute Chart

Just a quick snapshot of the count I believe the EUR/USD is following. I just got short at 1.454 with my stop loss at 1.458.

USD/JPY 4 Hour Chart

My previous count was almost invalidated this morning when my assumed wave 4 price dropped to a low of 90.724 just within the territory of wave 1. Although there is the 15% crossover rule for leveraged markets, I find it extremely rare that this occurs. I have for the last week been struggling to find a common ground between my own EW analysis, Asher's Ichimoku Analysis and Cmellon's Delta Counts for this pair. The conflict between the various counts means someone had to be incorrect.

Cmellon's Delta Count,  has a MTD 8 arriving 15-20 days after MTD 7 which is now confirmed as being on the 7th of Jan. This fits in well with an X being in progress at the moment. Wave A and wave C are almost exactly equal, which is quite common, and gives power the the likelihood of this count. So the down move which I expect will be an X, should end between the 22nd and 27th of Jan. Before a larger up move, another ABC. Keep in mind X can be any consolidation pattern, not just a zig-zag. It may form as a triangle or even a flat.

USD/JPY A New Count

Here is a 4 hour chart of the USD/JPY. The recent move down could be a wave 4 complete, or the pair may consolidate in a triangle before further upside. It is also quite possible that what I have marked as iii, should be marked as 3, and a wave 4 flat is complete or near completion. I have marked in blue the entire price movement of wave 1. As you can see wave 3 is only slightly larger than wave 1. This builds a strong case for an extended wave 5. Look to get long with a stop below the wave 1 extreme at 90.77.

EUR/USD Wave 4 Correction Hourly Chart

Here is an update of the correction the EUR/USD is currently involved in. I expect price to push slightly higher before a pullback where I will look for an opportunity to buy.

USD/JPY Ending Diagonal Count

Here is a possible count for the USD/JPY pair. Wave i of 5 is an obvious 3 wave move which is why an ED count came to mind. If the pair plays out as predicted, look to get short on the break of the ii/iv trend line.