Gold Update

 

Above is a 4 Hour Chart of Spot Gold (XAU/USD). This was the second possibility I posted over a week ago. I was expecting gold to drop lower initially but since then price has moved above 1125, invalidating my other count. From here I expect gold to move higher to complete and irregular flat. As you can see in the chart above black wave B completed near the 138.20 Fibonacci, which is fairly common. I expect wave C to complete near the end point of wave A at around 1160, however it is possible that wave C will form equal to wave A, forming a truncated flat, and finishing at around 1132.

Below is an hourly of the recent price action. A channel up is clearly present and I have drawn in a possible path the pair may take to complete the move. If you look closely you can see the wave 2 retracement are (in ascending order) shallow (38.2%), deep (>61.8%), and deep (61.8%). Therefore based on the rules of alternation I expect that the wave 4 retracements (in ascending order) will be shallow, very shallow, and then deep.

Gold Update

 

Gold has been consolidating in a clearly defined channel for the past week or so. Price has just bounced off the 61.8% Fibonacci level, and I expect channel support to fail over the coming session. Wait for a breakout then a retest of the bottom channel line to take a short trade with your stop above the recent high.

Attempting a Gold Scalp

I'm going to take a long position in Gold at 1066, targeting 1090. There are a clear 5 waves up and 3 waves down so I expect a 5 wave C leg to follow. Wave A - wave C at 1092. My stop is at 1062, so risk is minimal.

Alternate Gold Count

 

Here is an alternate Gold count. This is not my favoured count but it is possible nonetheless. It is always important to keep multiple patterns in cognition and to never be cemented to the one pattern.

Gold 4 Hour Chart

 

I am fairly confident the top is in for Gold and price is about to drop off sharply in a 3rd wave of a 3rd wave down. As you can see black wave 2 almost reached the 61.8% Fib level which is typical, and another 5 waves down to 1045.5 looks to be complete. Look to sell on a pullback to around the 1090 area with a stop at 1125.

Spot Gold Hourly Chart

Here is an hourly count for Spot Gold. The wave count seems very clear on this one. I think we are currently in a wave C down, and expect a fall to somewhere between the wave 2 extreme (1086) and the 61.8% Fib (1108). Wave A will equal wave C at 1104. Cautious traders may want to wait for a break of the rising trend like support before shorting. Keep stops at 1147.