SPX Daily Count

Apologies for my lack of posts lately. I have been extremely tied up with work and haven't had time to trade, let alone do up charts. I hope you all have been having some luck trading these markets. My risk averse bias as shown in my last several posts has proven to be incorrect as risk appetite has been increasing for far longer than I predicted. I still remain bearish on equities however and sentiment is once again reaching an extreme (see Prechter's latest interview here). In the SPX price is coming up against solid trend and shoulder line resistance, and I do not foresee a push up through the May 13 retracement at 1177 before a reversal. We may have already turned but if not I believe we are very close. I have just taken a short postiton at 1138 with a stop at 1180.

AUD/JPY Triange

The Aussie/Yen looks to have almost complete a huge triangle that began back in May this year. I think we are nearing a point of reversal from where we will head sharply lower which is the norm on completion of a triangle. For this count to remain valid 79.50 needs to hold. There is a fairly good risk to reward trade that can be make from current levels with a stop at 79.50. If this count is correct price should break back down through 72 over the coming months and will likely head much lower into the end of the year.

EUR/USD 4 Hour Chart

Just a quick one today as I don't have much time through the week anymore. Here is a EUR/USD 4 hour chart with a fairly obvious 5 wave move down from the recent high. I think we will continue to push higher in the final sharp leg of a correction before reversing near the 50% Fib level. This move will correlate with a push higher in risk across the board but will reverse sharply in a downward thrusting 3rd wave possibly around NFPs. Expect volumes and volatility to drop as we push closer to Friday's release.