Wednesday, February 17, 2010

AUD/USD

 
Here is a 4 Hour Chart of the AUD/USD pair. Wave 1 down was complete at 0.8580 and wave 2 looks like it will retrace back to around the 61.8% Fibonacci level, which is common for second waves. I actually expect the AUD/USD to pull back to slightly beyond the 61.8% level at 0.9045, closer to the 0.91 level. A of wave 2 will will be equal to C of wave 2 at around 0.9130, and if my count so far for wave C is correct, wave 1 of C will equal wave 5 of C at around 0.9105. 

I think the confluence zone will be the place to short, and I will be putting my order in at 0.91, with a stop at the high at 0.9330. Although this stop may seem large, there is the possibility that wave 2 will retrace even further to the 78.6% Fib at 0.9170, as second waves often retrace back to within the wave area of first waves one degree down, and the AUD has been very strong over the past week on the back of positive data, so it is best to play it safe. Good luck!

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