Elliott Wave Conjecture: Shorting the AUD/USD @ 0.9180

Monday, November 30, 2009

Shorting the AUD/USD @ 0.9180

The trend line from yesterdays chart is being re-tested and the 61.8% Fibonacci has been hit. I'm taking a short position from here at 0.9180. The RBA Interest Rate decision is coming tomorrow and I expect more downside follow through after the announcement. Keep stops above recent high at 0.9325.

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Trade Results For 2010

Aug	Unit	L/S	Entry	Stop	Target	Pips

28	GB/US	S	1.595	1.62	1.40	+70
27	SPX	S	1120	1114	TBD	+6
22	SPX	S	1082	1078	TBD	+4
16	SPX	S	1072	1063.3	TBD	+8.7
8	AU/JP	L	76.9	77.1	TBD	+0.2
6	NZ/US	S	0.70	0.716	TBD	-160
1/7	SPX	S	1035	1033	TBD	+2

Jun	Unit	L/S	Entry	Stop	Target	Pips

22	EU/US	S	1.2345	1.2292	TBD	+53
9	SPX	L	1056	1063.3	1068	+12
7	SPX	S	1071	1106	1050	+21
1	EU/US	L	1.224	1.215	1.265	-90

May	Unit	L/S	Entry	Stop	Target	Pips

26	US/CH	S	1.158	1.165	TBD	-70
25	EU/US	L	1.2275	1.226	1.28	-15
21	EU/US	L	1.232	1.246	1.273	+235
13	US/JP	S	93.50	90.96	82.00	+254
12	AU/JP	S	83.5	84	TBD	+60
11	EU/US	S	1.299	1.31	1.20	+230
6	SPX	S	1160	1205	1150	+10

Apr	Unit	L/S	Entry	Stop	Target	Pips

29	NZ/US	S	0.73	0.715	TBD	+400
23	AU/US	L	0.922	0.929	TBD	+70
21	EU/GB	L	0.871	0.86	TBD	-110
16	AU/JP	S	0.854	0.86	0.84	+140
15	US/CA	L	0.997	1.006	1.035	+90
13	AU/US	S	0.930	0.9285	0.901	+15
12	EU/US	S	1.366	1.365	TBD	+50
10	EU/US	S	1.345	1.35	TBD	-50
10	US/JP	L	93.20	93.315	95.50	+11
9	US/CA	L	1.003	1.004	1.03	+30
2	US/JP	S	94.40	95.50	92.70	+100

Mar	Unit	L/S	Entry	Stop	Target	Pips

31	GB/JP	S	143.50	145.50	110	+50
26	AU/JP	S	85.45	86.25	TBD	-80
24	EU/JP	S	122.65	123.20	119.80	-50
18	CA/JP	S	89.70	88.90	83.2	+80
17	CA/JP	S	89.50	90.60	TBD	+30
17	EU/GB	S	0.905	0.9075	0.8980	+70
11	GB/US	S	1.5105	1.52	TBD	-40
8	US/JP	L	89.80	89.25	90.40	+60
3	EU/US	S	1.365	1.372	TBD	-70
2	EU/US	S	1.357	1.36	1.339	-30
2	EU/US	L	1.349	1.344	1.356	+70
1	EU/GB	L	1.3595	1.3575	TBD	-20
1	GB/EU	L	1.4965	1.49	TBD	-65
1	EU/US	S	1.3650	1.3685	1.3595	+55

Feb	Unit	L/S	Entry	Stop	Target	Pips

27	EU/US	S	1.366	1.372	1.3595	+65
27	EU/US	L	1.357	1.355	1.366	+90
26	EU/GB	S	0.89	0.915	TBD	-250
25	US/CA	L	1.055	1.052	1.065	+100
23	AU/US	S	0.902	0.907	0.888	+140
23	AU/US	L	0.901	0.904	0.9125	+30
21	EU/GB	S	0.881	0.886	0.858	-50
15	Gold	S	1100	1125	TBD	-25
12	US/JP	S	90.30	91.30	87.50	-100
10	AU/JP	S	77.95	81.5	TBD	-355
9	US/CA	L	1.071	1.025	TBD	-460
9	Gold	L	1066	1062	1075	+9
8	US/CA	S	1.071	1.077	1.055	-60
8	GB/JP	S	139.5	143	TBD	-350
8	EU/GB	S	0.8775	0.8855	0.868	+95
8	Gold	S	1075	1125	1060	+15
8	EU/US	L	1.364	1.3685	1.3755	+91
5	US/JP	S	90.30	90.10	88.3	+20

Jan	Unit	L/S	Entry	Stop	Target	Pips

29	EU/GB	L	0.865	0.869	0.873	+80
29	US/JP	L	89.7	89.20	90.45	+75
25	US/JP	L	90	89.20	90.45	+45
22	US/JP	L	90.15	90.15	TBD	S/O
22	AU/US	S	0.9135	0.918	0.903	+105
21	US/JP	S	91.80	92.50	90.2	+160
21	US/JP	L	91	90.3	91.8	+80
19	AU/US	S	0.925	0.933	0.91	+150
19	Gold	S	1138	1147	1104	+34
16	EU/GB	S	0.887	0.903	TBD	Exp
14	EU/US	S	1.454	1.4447	TBD	+93
07	US/JP	S	93.65	93.35	92.95	+30
05	US/JP	S	92.5	92.5	90	S/O
04	EU/US	S	1.445	1.4485	1.41	-35
04	AU/US	S	0.91	0.92	0.85	-100

N.B. Several people have questioned me about my terrible performance in February. Those losses were due to lack of money management skills, not bad analysis. See my early March postings for a more details about those problems, and what I have been doing to fix them.

Elliott Wave Conjecture

Monday, November 30, 2009

Shorting the AUD/USD @ 0.9180

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