EUR/USD Possibilities

Here are several EUR/USD 4 hour charts showing the possible future movements of the pair. I have listed them in order of most favoured to least favoured. This first one is my current primary count because the move off recent from the low at 1.2153 looks very much like a leading diagonal to me. Also I am bullish on equities in the very short term but bearish in the medium term, which fits well with this count. As you can see it looks to me as if the pair has almost completed a wave ii down and is about to head higher in a wave iii. If this could is correct it is likely that price will turn soon and will test 1.245 on Monday or Tuesday. A break beneath 1.2150 will invalidate. Based on this chart I am going to take a long position at 1.2240 which is the near both the 76.4% Fibonacci level and extension where wave a of ii equals wave c of ii.

Here is a more bullish count for the pair, showing a truncated wave 5 which will be a medium term bottom. If this count is correct we will likely see a sharp surge upwards during Mondays session. I do not favour this count due to my bias towards increasing risk aversion over the coming months. If however this count is correct expect price to test 1.30 at a minimum, but more likely higher. The 38.2% Fibonacci of the entire move down from the top lies at 1.33.

Finally here is my bearish EUR/USD count. I am highly doubtful that this scenario will unravel however it is always important to be aware of both bullish and bearish possibilities. Here wave 5 has begun, and looks like it is going to extend downward. The reason I am dubious of this move is that the fall from the 1.2454 high does not look impulsive at all. However it is possible that is is a choppy leading diagonal and price is going to drop hard through 1.2150 early in the week.

SPX Video Analysis

Roy's latest video analysis of the SPX is out in which he warns bears to be careful as it doesn't look like the market has topped out just yet. I also have been cautious of this being the top as the move down from 1104 does not at all look impulsive. Click the link on the left of the page to view the video.

AUD/USD Could Be Topping

Keep an eye on this Head and Shoulders reversal pattern forming on the AUD/USD. If the neckline at 0.821 breaks price will likely head back down to the 0.8050 support level. 80.50 has been solid resistance twice over the last few weeks, and if it breaks it is likely we will see continuation of the move to the downside. It is possible that an impulsive wave 1 is complete from the high and we are now retracing in a wave 2. A move 0.839 will invalidate this count.

Clear Impulse Down on the USD/CHF

There hasn't been many clear impulsive moves over the last few days as most markets seem to be correcting in a very choppy manner. The USD/CHF is offering one of the only clear impulses I can see in any FX market. I am going attempt to take a short trade from 1.163 with my stop at 1.17. Be warned however that the move from the low I have labeled as 1 or A to the high at 2 or B could also be an impulse so it is possible that price will continue higher after an ABC down. Do not risk more than you can afford to lose. Sometimes it is best to wait for clearer signals if you don't really have any good trade ideas.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

The inverted H&S target from my previous EUR/USD chart (1.2730) has not yet been hit. I took profit near the top of the B of X after noticing that the wave looked very corrective in nature and further downside was likely. Once 1.25 broke a new H&S pattern emerged as marked on this chart, and as you can see the target was easily reached. I have not taken a long position from near the 78.6% Fib which is also the bottom of a confluence area that the pair has been between for the majority of the last few weeks. I think we will be moving up from current levels very soon. The corrective downward movement of the NZD/USD from the recent high also gives weight to an increasing risk appetite over the next few days (in a C of a flat). Keep your stops at 1.2140.

May 22nd Elliott Wave Analysis Video

Roy the Elliott Wave Practitioner has just released a new video analysis of the SPX. Click on the link to the left to watch it.

EUR/USD Inverse Head and Shoulders Reversal

Some of you may have already spotted this pattern on the EUR/USD hourly, and a similar, inverse pattern on the USDX. The EUR/USD has been holding up well over the past few days and I expect Euro strength to continue as price rebounds from oversold territory. As you can see the pair has completed 5 waves up which is either a 1 or an A, and looks to have completed a correction - labeled as a B or 2. Look to get long with risk just beneath the recent low. The H&S target is 1.2730, or for a more conservative price target the Fibonacci price extension where wave A or 1 = wave 3 or C is at 1.26.
*** Friday US Session Update *** I am taking profit on this trade at 1.2555 because the move from the bottom at 1.2470 looks corrective so we will likely be moving below there before we push higher again if at all.

SPX and DAX Video Analysis

Roy has just released his latest video update of the SPX and the DAX markets. Check it out by clicking the link to the left. Things are looking very bearish for equities as markets move back into a state of risk aversion.

USD/JPY 30 Minute Chart

The initial downside USD/JPY target after the completion of the Ending Diagonal (the point of origin of the ED) at 92.21 has been reached, however the fall did not maintain momentum and price has reversed in what seems to be a corrective manner. I believe the USD will push slightly higher to just over 93.00 before dropping southward once again. As you can see the 93.10 level is the fourth wave extreme of the smaller cycle and also the 61.8% Fib of the impulse down from the top. If this count is invalidated, risk on this trade is fairly limited as all stops for any short positions taken should be placed just near the recent high at 93.60.

SPX Fibonacci Confluence Zone at 1155

The SPX looks to have put in a complete 5 waves down from the high at 1176 and is pulling back sharply in standard wave 2 fashion. There is a very important confluence of Fibonacci levels at the 1155/1158 zone which is the 61.8% retracement of the entire drop from the 1220 top, and the 61.8% of last weeks high. If price retraces this far I think this will be an excellent area to get short. Keep your stops at 1177.