Tuesday, November 3, 2009
USD/CHF Possible Triangle Correction
Here is a triangle count for the USD/CHF pair. The EUR/USD could also be playing out a similar pattern.
US Dollar Index Hourly Chart Update
Here are the 2 scenarios I believe are most likely for the USDX.

There is a distinct 5 wave (impulsive) move up as shown in the charts. That implies that the move is most likely either the beginning of the next leg up, or a C leg of a corrective pattern. My charts for the USD/CHF pair are almost identical to these also. There is also the chance that these pairs are forming a triangle (see today's USD/CHF post).
Monday, November 2, 2009
US Dollar Index Hourly Chart Update
This is my current count on the USDX. Although there are several possible counts at the moment, this is what I speculate is underway. I expect a retracement to at least the 7580 level before further upside. I am fairly confident that the wave 1 impulse I have marked is correct. Robert Balan states: "The normal retracement of an irregular correction is 38.2 percent from the orthodox end of the adjacent impulse wave," and wave C of the irregular flat finishes almost exactly on the 38.2% Fibonacci of the entire first impulse.
EUR/USD Hourly Chart
I think the EUR/USD is forming a flat correction and price will soon bounce higher off the 1.47 support area.
USD/CAD Hourly Chart
The USD/CAD pair seems to be trading within a well defined channel. Any break below this channel should signify a good shorting opportunity.
Trade Idea of the Day
Long USD/JPY from Current Level (89.75 at the time of posting)
Stop Loss: 88.00
Target: > 93.50 (Where wave A/1 = Wave C/3)
Stop Loss: 88.00
Target: > 93.50 (Where wave A/1 = Wave C/3)
USD/JPY Hourly Chart
The USD/JPY pair looks to be playing out exactly as I predicted last week. As is common with leading diagonals, wave 2 retraced around 70% of wave 1. I am currently holding a long position in this pair.
NZD/USD Hourly Chart
The Kiwi looks to have touched on and bounced perfectly off the 138.2% Fibonacci level, which, according to Robert Balan, is extremely common in irregular corrections.
SPX500 Hourly Chart
I have reviewed my SPX charts and am no longer expecting the wave 2 up to occur so soon. This is what I predict will happen over the next few sessions.
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