Tuesday, November 3, 2009

USD/CHF Possible Triangle Correction
















Here is a triangle count for the USD/CHF pair. The EUR/USD could also be playing out a similar pattern.

US Dollar Index Hourly Chart Update

Here are the 2 scenarios I believe are most likely for the USDX.


There is a distinct 5 wave (impulsive) move up as shown in the charts. That implies that the move is most likely either the beginning of the next leg up, or a C leg of a corrective pattern. My charts for the USD/CHF pair are almost identical to these also. There is also the chance that these pairs are forming a triangle (see today's USD/CHF post).

Monday, November 2, 2009

USD/JPY 4 Hour Chart Possible Inverted Head & Shoulders


US Dollar Index Hourly Chart Update


This is my current count on the USDX. Although there are several possible counts at the moment, this is what I speculate is underway. I expect a retracement to at least the 7580 level before further upside. I am fairly confident that the wave 1 impulse I have marked is correct. Robert Balan states: "The normal retracement of an irregular correction is 38.2 percent from the orthodox end of the adjacent impulse wave," and wave C of the irregular flat finishes almost exactly on the 38.2% Fibonacci of the entire first impulse.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart


 I think the EUR/USD is forming a flat correction and price will soon bounce higher off the 1.47 support area.

USD/CAD Hourly Chart
















The USD/CAD pair seems to be trading within a well defined channel. Any break below this channel should signify a good shorting opportunity.

Trade Idea of the Day

Long USD/JPY from Current Level (89.75 at the time of posting)
Stop Loss: 88.00
Target: > 93.50 (Where wave A/1 = Wave C/3)

USD/JPY Hourly Chart
















The USD/JPY pair looks to be playing out exactly as I predicted last week. As is common with leading diagonals, wave 2 retraced around 70% of wave 1. I am currently holding a long position in this pair.

NZD/USD Hourly Chart


The Kiwi looks to have touched on and bounced perfectly off the 138.2% Fibonacci level, which, according to Robert Balan, is extremely common in irregular corrections. 



SPX500 Hourly Chart
















I have reviewed my SPX charts and am no longer expecting the wave 2 up to occur so soon. This is what I predict will happen over the next few sessions.