Elliott Wave Conjecture

SPX Daily Count

2010-09-22T21:03:00.001+10:00

Apologies for my lack of posts lately. I have been extremely tied up with work and haven't had time to trade, let alone do up charts. I hope you all have been having some luck trading these markets. My risk averse bias as shown in my last several posts has proven to be incorrect as risk appetite has been increasing for far longer than I predicted. I still remain bearish on equities however and sentiment is once again reaching an extreme (see Prechter's latest interview here). In the SPX price is coming up against solid trend and shoulder line resistance, and I do not foresee a push up through the May 13 retracement at 1177 before a reversal. We may have already turned but if not I believe we are very close. I have just taken a short postiton at 1138 with a stop at 1180.

AUD/JPY Triange

2010-09-03T22:49:00.000+10:00

The Aussie/Yen looks to have almost complete a huge triangle that began back in May this year. I think we are nearing a point of reversal from where we will head sharply lower which is the norm on completion of a triangle. For this count to remain valid 79.50 needs to hold. There is a fairly good risk to reward trade that can be make from current levels with a stop at 79.50. If this count is correct price should break back down through 72 over the coming months and will likely head much lower into the end of the year.

EUR/USD 4 Hour Chart

2010-09-01T22:41:00.000+10:00

Just a quick one today as I don't have much time through the week anymore. Here is a EUR/USD 4 hour chart with a fairly obvious 5 wave move down from the recent high. I think we will continue to push higher in the final sharp leg of a correction before reversing near the 50% Fib level. This move will correlate with a push higher in risk across the board but will reverse sharply in a downward thrusting 3rd wave possibly around NFPs. Expect volumes and volatility to drop as we push closer to Friday's release.

Bearish SPX Hourly Chart

2010-08-24T22:36:00.002+10:00

My daily count seems to be holding up well and I think we are ready to drop. Momentum so far hasn't been strong, but I am still confident that we are heading lower, and have just taken another short position based on this count. As you can see, the move I have labeled and red wave 2 is a flat, and retraced less than 50% of the preceding wave 1. This signifies weakness, which has also been shown through the minimal retracements in the last few weeks when other risky markets bounced much harder. I am moving my stop loss on my previous short to 1064 because if this is a 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd we should start to gain momentum very soon and since this wave is expected to extend a long way, it is unlikely we will retrace much from here. If we do push back up above 1064 I will have to review my count.

NZD/USD Daily Charts

2010-08-24T20:27:00.002+10:00

Here are two daily chart possibilities for the NZD/USD. This first one is my primary count, based solely on the Diagonal pictures counting better as a Leading Diagonal (5-3-5-3-5) rather than as an Ending Diagonal (3-3-3-3-3) as per the chart below. It is also possible that the LD wave 1 is an A, the 2 is a B of a more complex double or triple 3 correction, and we will continue to hold the daily range for some time to come. This alternate to my chart does not sit well with my fundamental based expectations for a large decline in the US economy coming into 2011 however, so I do not believe it is likely. I expect the relationship between the US and it's "safe haven" status will continue to deteriorate into the coming months and years, and we will see a decline in the US Dollar as the next wave of global economic decline sweeps across the globe.

Here is my other count for the NZD/USD. If this count is correct it is likely we will retrace the entire length of the Ending Diagonal C of X all the way back to 0.66. This downside move will likely take up a bit more time than the correlatory one in the chart above, however in a similar way I expect that once it reverses to the upside it will do so sharply and impulsively. In both of these two counts, expect the coming move to the downside to be choppy in nature as the moves are both corrective and not impulsive. I think selling this pair in the short term is a possible option but would not suggest getting short unless prices were to retrace to the 0.715 level. In my opinion there are better trading opportunities around at the moment.

SPX Ending Diagonal Possibilities

2010-08-08T20:15:00.001+10:00

Here is my bearish SPX Ending Diagonal count. In this count the market has already topped out and completed green wave 2 (see my last post for a daily chart of my longer term count). Although it is hard to make out on a 4 hour chart, there is a possible Leading Diagonal down from last weeks top, and we have reversed sharply in a wave 2 which is a common occurrence after an LD. We will know very early in the week whether or not this count is correct, and while I am hopeful it is, I think it is more likely we push up one more time before reversing as per my next count.

Here is my other Ending Diagonal count, which is bullish in the short term. As you can see price bounced hard off the lower trend line support during Fridays session, and we may see some follow through on Monday in the form of a throw-over fifth wave. If this is the case I would suggest taking short positions from the 1140 level which should offer strong resistance. I do not expect price to break much above 1150 however if it does I will have to revise my longer term count as this will most likely invalidate my ED counts.

SPX Looks close to Topping

2010-08-02T19:14:00.000+10:00

This is my current favoured SPX count showing an Ending Diagonal nearing completion. I am expecting price to rollover on a spike up above 1120 from where it will drop sharply in a wave 3. 1035 which has held price in the past should do so once again, although I will be placing my stop at 1180 to be safe. As I have mentioned several times in the past I am very bearish on the US economy and expect the bear trend to continue very soon. I have attempted unsuccessfully to get short with a small stop several times over the last month in anticipation of top, however we have now retraced to a level where I think it is worthwhile taking a short with a larger stop. I agree with the longer term views of Prechter and Gerald Celente and believe we very near to a wave 2 top.

As you can see on the chart to the left (showing a 4 hour zoom of the C wave ED from the chart above) there is clear divergence in the RSI, and price is once again nearing overbought levels. I expect this final thrust up in price (whether it makes a new high or fails) will not make a new high in the RSI showing more bearish divergence. I will be looking to short at 1125 with a 1180 stop. If price fails before reaching that point I will take a short on a break through the bottom upward trending ED support line. As I have mentioned in the past, this is a medium to long term hold position with a great risk to reward. Price is expected to fall beneath 670 in the long term.

GBP/USD Keeps Pushing Higher

2010-07-28T23:22:00.001+10:00

Cable just keeps on going! Here is a 4 hour chart of the trend lines I've been watching. If price continues higher into the top resistance zone I think it will make a good short with a stop at 1.59. 1.58 has been important support and resistance several times in the past so it will make a good entry point.

I got out of my SPX short just now as the pattern down from the top looks corrective. I now think risk is likely to edge slowly higher for the remainder of the week until the US GDP data comes out on Friday, which I expect will be dismal. I will be watching the markets closely then for a top out in equities and likely a turn in risk across the board.

SPX Could be Completing an Ending Diagonal

2010-07-27T23:24:00.000+10:00

Here is a possible Ending Diagonal count for the SPX. I have put in a black count showing the ED pretty much complete as I write this, and a red count with another possible wave up to come before a reversal. Either way a break of the bottom trend line should offer a good signal to get short with a stop above the previous high. If this move down complete as an ED it will be the C wave of a large zig-zag from 1007.4, and I expect that price will reverse sharply from the high as it begins falling in a large 3 of 3. I have just taken a short from the top trend line in anticipation for a collapse. Anyone who follows me knows I have been trying to get on at the top of this move for some time. More conservative traders may want to wait for a confirmed break of the bottom trend line before getting short.

GBP/USD Support Channel Continues to Hold

2010-07-22T21:10:00.000+10:00

There is a really apparent upward trending support zone on the 4 hour which has continued to hold up the Pound. One again price has reversed sharply pushing higher against the USD. As this entire move looks corrective I am expecting price to eventually break through the bottom of the channel and make a new low. Until then it is not safe to get short unless we move to near the top of the channel or if the support zone has been decisively breached to the downside. Expect resistance just above 1.55 as this has held price in the past.

SPX About to Plummet?

2010-07-17T02:46:00.000+10:00

Here is my primary 15 minute SPX count. While the whole move from the high could be counted as a correction it is also possible that we have already topped out and are heading lower from here. As you can see there are some extremely bearish looking candles beginning to show and I think fundamentally it is more likely that we will hear negative news over the weekend. In my chart you can see in my chart we have just begun a third of a third of a third which would explain the sudden sharp drop off in price, and also means this momentum is likely to carry on for the remainder of the session and into next week. I have just taken a short position with a stop at 1090. The target remains open but the expected risk to reward on this trade is massive.

SPX Showing Signs of Weakness

2010-07-09T20:52:00.001+10:00

Here is my irregular flat count for the S&P 500. The reason I favour this count is because the wave I have labeled as black wave B fits perfectly as a 3 wave move, and looks awkward when labeled as an impulse which ever way the sub-waves are labeled. Wave 2 retracements are normally deep and sharp however this shallow flat is a warning sign of impending weakness. I expect the final wave of this correction (black C) will likely be a failure as well (not reach the end of black wave A), which is also be a sign of weakness. Once this correction is complete I expect a very hard and fast fall straight through the 1000 level. This will likely occur as levels of negative press about the US and it's imploding economy increase. If there is one trade I want to be in for the rest of this year it is short US equities.

NZD/USD Hourly Chart

2010-07-06T22:47:00.000+10:00

Here is my latest NZD/USD count with what I am expecting from this pair over the coming weeks. There appears to be a reasonably clear 5 waves down from the triple top at 0.7155 and it appears as thought the pair has almost completed a flat correction from the low. I expect that price will encounter strong resistance at around the 0.6980 level, which is strong technical resistance and also very near the 50% Fibonacci level. Look to sell from this zone with a stop above the triple top. While this stop is over 100 pips away, if this count is correct and we are about to fall in a third wave the target is well over 400 pips away giving us a great risk to reward ratio.

SPX Head & Shoulder Reversal Pattern Complete

2010-07-01T11:25:00.000+10:00

The SPX H&S Pattern that many of have been watching for some time has completed and the neckline has been broken. Price may drop hard from current levels in a large wave 3. While it is possible price may rally from here in a 2 of 3, I think it is more likely that the neckline will hold as resistance and price will fall hard and fast from here after a negligible pullback. I have taken a short from the neckline break. The H&S target is 860 however I think we will go much lower than that. Keep stops at 1050. There is currently a nice 5 waves down from 1048 on the 5 minute so we may pull back to the 1030/38 area before continuing lower.

2010-06-22T09:54:00.000+10:00

The upward trending support that I have been watching on the EUR/USD broke last night and the move from the top can be labeled as an impulse. I am going to take a short on a pullback to 1.2345, which could be a second 2 of a 1-2, 1-2. Stops will be kept tight at 1.2395. If the 1.24 level breaks however it is likely we will be moving higher still. There isn't too much else to report as market patterns haven't been very clear over the last week so I haven't been trading. Good luck.

SPX Video Analysis

2010-06-20T17:43:00.000+10:00

Roy's latest video analysis of the SPX is out. His thought on equity markets echo my own exactly. I think we will see another small increase in risk appetite early in the week before a reversal. Check out the video by clicking on the link to the left of the page.

Some thoughts on EUR/USD

2010-06-16T03:17:00.000+10:00

While the larger count for the EUR/USD pair is indeterminate due to the ambiguous nature of the sub-waves from the 1.5150 high, I have been focusing on shorter term patterns to decipher intra-day direction. For the past month the pair has been carving out a series of 3 wave patterns, which looks very much to me like it is all part of the same corrective move. Many people are calling for a medium term bottom in the EUR/USD and while sentiment is at an extreme which favours the bulls, I am highly dubious that this move down is yet complete. The move from 1.2670 (in red) is clearly a 3 wave move and thus cannot be the final move in an impulse, unless it is part of an ending diagonal, which is clearly not the case in this instance.

Another reason why I believe that this is not the bottom everyone is hoping for is the highly corrective nature of the move up from the 1.18765 low. If we are to see a significant retracement which relates to the entire move from the 1.5150 high, I would expect a much sharper rebound. To the left I have posted an ending diagonal count which is currently my favoured scenario from here. While it is possible that we are just in a corrective move as pictured above, I do not think the EUR/USD has much room left to fall before a larger retracement on the daily scale, and we will probably chop around in a further series of 3 wave moves for the next month or so before pushing higher. Both of these scenarios point to coming downside in the next few days, so I will look to enter short on a move above 1.25 with my stop above 1.27.

NZD/USD Daily Update

2010-06-15T12:23:00.001+10:00

Recent bullish price action in the NZD/USD pair has forced me to review my count. On the daily chart the move from the 0.7635 high does not at all look like the beginning of a new motive wave. While it is possible that we have a large drawn out second wave that stretches from 0.7083 to 0.7326, I think this is unlikely the correct count and in the long term the Kiwi will eventually push back above 0.76 again. Medium term I am still bearish however and I expect that after the completion of this rally - which I have labeled as X - we will fall in another corrective ABC to the downside.

NZD/USD 4 Hour

2010-06-10T23:42:00.001+10:00

The NZD/USD looks to be completing a very large complex flat correction from the May low. Price is nearing this month's high which should act as some resistance if we make above 0.69. I think it is more likely we rollover soon and head lower in an impulsive fashion. This move will likely coincide with a turn in equities and a shift in sentiment away from riskier markets. This pair has the most extreme sentiment reading of all the majors according the DailyFX data, which warns of an impending reversal. I think this pair offers a fairly good risk to reward from current levels with a stop just above the 50% Fib at 0.695.

SPX Analysis

2010-06-09T14:16:00.001+10:00

Here is my 4 hour SPX count. I think we have either just begun the red wave 3 down from the 1108 high or are still correcting in a large complex wave 2 of the same cycle. So far price has been twice rejected at the 38.2% Fibonacci of the entire move down from this year's high. While I am very bearish long term - click here to see a very informative video on Supercycle Theory and how it will affect you over the next few years - it is still possible that equities will remain range bound for several more days, or maybe even weeks, before breaking to new lows.

This chart is a 15 minute close up of the last move down from the 1108 high. I believe the move is either a 1 of the large, red wave 3, or a C wave of an X wave and we are still correcting in the large red wave 2. Either way it looks very obvious to me that the move ended with an ending diagonal. This means that price will almost certainly retrace to the point of origin of the ED before moving lower. Based on this I am going to take a small long position from here with my stop at the recent low. My initial target is 1071, however if my alternate scenario plays out and we are still in the red wave 2 price will move much higher, and likely test the 1105 level again.

SPX Video Analysis

2010-06-07T01:27:00.003+10:00

Roy's latest video analysis of the SPX is out. His outlook is extremely bearish from this point onwards. If you are still holding any longs in equities you might want to reconsider your positions. Click the link on the left of the page to view the video.

EUR/USD Ending Diagonal Possibility

2010-06-03T13:04:00.002+10:00

Here is another insight into the possible future movements of the EUR/USD. The basis of this idea is the extremely choppy price action from the high (red 4). The 3rd scenario from the last EUR/USD post is also possible, but the other two have been invalidated. Click here for Jamie's take on things. Either way it looks relatively safe to get long from here, with your stop at 1.210 but be careful price could fall in a C of B of 2 before heading higher.

USD/CHF Hourly

2010-06-02T16:42:00.000+10:00

The USD/CHF looks to be correcting from 1.147 in a wave ii of C or an X wave (if wave C was complete at the low). Either way I expect more downside over the rest of the week. Look to short from around 1.162 with at stop near the recent high just above 1.17. I am fairly confident in this trade as the drop from the top was sharp and very impulse like and the move off the low is very choppy typical of a correction. Move stops to break even on a break below 1.15. Initial target is 1.1350 however it is possible that the move will extend much lower depending on the pattern that emerges in the coming days. I will update as this move plays out.

EUR/USD Possibilities

2010-05-30T17:14:00.002+10:00

Here are several EUR/USD 4 hour charts showing the possible future movements of the pair. I have listed them in order of most favoured to least favoured. This first one is my current primary count because the move off recent from the low at 1.2153 looks very much like a leading diagonal to me. Also I am bullish on equities in the very short term but bearish in the medium term, which fits well with this count. As you can see it looks to me as if the pair has almost completed a wave ii down and is about to head higher in a wave iii. If this could is correct it is likely that price will turn soon and will test 1.245 on Monday or Tuesday. A break beneath 1.2150 will invalidate. Based on this chart I am going to take a long position at 1.2240 which is the near both the 76.4% Fibonacci level and extension where wave a of ii equals wave c of ii.

Here is a more bullish count for the pair, showing a truncated wave 5 which will be a medium term bottom. If this count is correct we will likely see a sharp surge upwards during Mondays session. I do not favour this count due to my bias towards increasing risk aversion over the coming months. If however this count is correct expect price to test 1.30 at a minimum, but more likely higher. The 38.2% Fibonacci of the entire move down from the top lies at 1.33.

Finally here is my bearish EUR/USD count. I am highly doubtful that this scenario will unravel however it is always important to be aware of both bullish and bearish possibilities. Here wave 5 has begun, and looks like it is going to extend downward. The reason I am dubious of this move is that the fall from the 1.2454 high does not look impulsive at all. However it is possible that is is a choppy leading diagonal and price is going to drop hard through 1.2150 early in the week.

SPX Video Analysis

2010-05-30T13:23:00.001+10:00

Roy's latest video analysis of the SPX is out in which he warns bears to be careful as it doesn't look like the market has topped out just yet. I also have been cautious of this being the top as the move down from 1104 does not at all look impulsive. Click the link on the left of the page to view the video.

AUD/USD Could Be Topping

2010-05-27T13:51:00.001+10:00

Keep an eye on this Head and Shoulders reversal pattern forming on the AUD/USD. If the neckline at 0.821 breaks price will likely head back down to the 0.8050 support level. 80.50 has been solid resistance twice over the last few weeks, and if it breaks it is likely we will see continuation of the move to the downside. It is possible that an impulsive wave 1 is complete from the high and we are now retracing in a wave 2. A move 0.839 will invalidate this count.

Clear Impulse Down on the USD/CHF

2010-05-26T17:58:00.001+10:00

There hasn't been many clear impulsive moves over the last few days as most markets seem to be correcting in a very choppy manner. The USD/CHF is offering one of the only clear impulses I can see in any FX market. I am going attempt to take a short trade from 1.163 with my stop at 1.17. Be warned however that the move from the low I have labeled as 1 or A to the high at 2 or B could also be an impulse so it is possible that price will continue higher after an ABC down. Do not risk more than you can afford to lose. Sometimes it is best to wait for clearer signals if you don't really have any good trade ideas.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

2010-05-25T16:38:00.000+10:00

The inverted H&S target from my previous EUR/USD chart (1.2730) has not yet been hit. I took profit near the top of the B of X after noticing that the wave looked very corrective in nature and further downside was likely. Once 1.25 broke a new H&S pattern emerged as marked on this chart, and as you can see the target was easily reached. I have not taken a long position from near the 78.6% Fib which is also the bottom of a confluence area that the pair has been between for the majority of the last few weeks. I think we will be moving up from current levels very soon. The corrective downward movement of the NZD/USD from the recent high also gives weight to an increasing risk appetite over the next few days (in a C of a flat). Keep your stops at 1.2140.

May 22nd Elliott Wave Analysis Video

2010-05-23T22:00:00.002+10:00

Roy the Elliott Wave Practitioner has just released a new video analysis of the SPX. Click on the link to the left to watch it.

EUR/USD Inverse Head and Shoulders Reversal

2010-05-21T01:01:00.006+10:00

Some of you may have already spotted this pattern on the EUR/USD hourly, and a similar, inverse pattern on the USDX. The EUR/USD has been holding up well over the past few days and I expect Euro strength to continue as price rebounds from oversold territory. As you can see the pair has completed 5 waves up which is either a 1 or an A, and looks to have completed a correction - labeled as a B or 2. Look to get long with risk just beneath the recent low. The H&S target is 1.2730, or for a more conservative price target the Fibonacci price extension where wave A or 1 = wave 3 or C is at 1.26.
*** Friday US Session Update *** I am taking profit on this trade at 1.2555 because the move from the bottom at 1.2470 looks corrective so we will likely be moving below there before we push higher again if at all.

SPX and DAX Video Analysis

2010-05-20T13:24:00.000+10:00

Roy has just released his latest video update of the SPX and the DAX markets. Check it out by clicking the link to the left. Things are looking very bearish for equities as markets move back into a state of risk aversion.

USD/JPY 30 Minute Chart

2010-05-18T22:01:00.001+10:00

The initial downside USD/JPY target after the completion of the Ending Diagonal (the point of origin of the ED) at 92.21 has been reached, however the fall did not maintain momentum and price has reversed in what seems to be a corrective manner. I believe the USD will push slightly higher to just over 93.00 before dropping southward once again. As you can see the 93.10 level is the fourth wave extreme of the smaller cycle and also the 61.8% Fib of the impulse down from the top. If this count is invalidated, risk on this trade is fairly limited as all stops for any short positions taken should be placed just near the recent high at 93.60.

SPX Fibonacci Confluence Zone at 1155

2010-05-17T22:23:00.000+10:00

The SPX looks to have put in a complete 5 waves down from the high at 1176 and is pulling back sharply in standard wave 2 fashion. There is a very important confluence of Fibonacci levels at the 1155/1158 zone which is the 61.8% retracement of the entire drop from the 1220 top, and the 61.8% of last weeks high. If price retraces this far I think this will be an excellent area to get short. Keep your stops at 1177.

SPX Elliott Wave Video Analysis

2010-05-17T10:16:00.004+10:00

Roy, the Elliott Wave Practitioner, has just released a short video analysis of the SPX. Shorting from near current levels offers an excellent opportunity for a long term trade with the possibility of a great risk to reward. Click on the link to left of the screen to see this latest video. I will also be doing a shorter terms SPX analysis later today as I have noticed a very important Fibonacci confluence zone on the 1 hour if we retrace from current levels in a second wave from the top at 1176.

SPX Wave 2 Looks to have Topped

2010-05-14T19:58:00.000+10:00

Well my Ending Diagonal scenario didn't play out and now that the parallel channel from the SPX highs has been breached to the downside my bias has changed. So far we have had a clear 5 waves down from the top. This could be a complete impulse and a retracement is about to occur, or it could be a far more bearish 1-2, 1-2 scenario. I tend to favour the latter as I expect this fall the be fast and hard. Look to get short on a pullback, this overstretched market has a long way to fall from here.

SPX Update

2010-05-14T11:55:00.000+10:00

Here is my latest SPX chart. It looks fairly obvious to me that the SPX is forming an Ending Diagonal. The moves from the bottom of wave 4 struggle to be defined by any other patterns. In line with this count I expect an increase in risk appetite over the coming session, before a reversal and sharp fall later in the US session. I have sold out of my previous short from 1160 at break even and will look to re-enter again at around 1180. This is a very long term trade and the risk to reward expected on it is excellent. Because I expect equities to top out here and plummet for months a set target cannot yet be defined as yet. Keep risk at 1220 if you can or at least at 1195, just above downward sloping resistance if you want to keep risk tight.

USD/JPY Ending Diagonal 30 Minute Chart

2010-05-13T19:44:00.001+10:00

Here is my 30 minute Ending Diagonal count for the USD/JPY pair. The pair may have topped out and completed a large correction at the recent high at 93.64. The series of 3 wave moves from 92.20 fits perfectly with an ED patten, so even if this correction isn't over and we are going to consolidate for longer, it is likely that price will fall to at least the 92.20 level as it is the norm for ED's to retrace to at least the level of their point of origin. I believe we are soon going to see an acceleration to the downside in a push well below the wave 1 low at 88. I have taken a short from 93.50 with a stop just above the high. If you are going to get in on this trade keep your stop at 93.65.

Covering My Short Positions

2010-05-12T17:50:00.001+10:00

It is 7.40 a.m. GMT and I have decided to take profit of my EUR/USD, AUD/JPY and SPX trades due to the lack of clarity on smaller time frame counts and some very bullish looking signals in the aforementioned and some other correlative markets. If you have been following my trades and want to keep up to date with my intraday movements I post live update throughout the day via my Twitter account. I will be looking to re-enter all these positions from a higher level and will post updated charts (if previous counts are invalidated or begin to seem improbable) and orders when opportunities occur. Good luck!

SPX 30 Minute Chart Update

2010-05-11T15:25:00.000+10:00

Here is an update of my SPX count. The retrace from the low is sufficient in size to assume that is it a larger cycle 1-2 rather than a 3-4 as I previously thought. I am expecting one final push above 1165 to complete this correction from where I will be looking to take a short position on the completion of the wave 5 (v) of C. At present we may be nearing completion of a wave 2 of 5 (v) or we may still be in a wave 4 (iv) of C. I have marked the Fibonacci rations with wave 1 = wave 5 for both possibilities. If we move to below 1130 without first pushing up in a final motive wave this count will be invalidated. Look to get short from around 1180 with a stop at 1210. This is a medium term hold position which offers a great risk to reward. For more info see Roy's latest video on the SPX.

EUR/USD 15 Minute Chart

2010-05-11T00:43:00.003+10:00

I believe the EUR/USD has finally started moving lower again and will accelerate to the downside after a small retracement from gap support. This will likely coincide with a drop in the price of equities, and an overall shift towards safety. The move from the top at 1.3095 so far looks impulsive and the Euro has been comparatively weak across the majors which I expect to continue over the coming few days. It does not appear that the news about the situation in Greece has done much to shift overall sentiment toward the Euro. I took a short position from 1.2990 and have my stop just above the high at 1.31. If you are looking to enter the trade wait for a pullback after the gap is closed but beware if equities drop off and the markets move into a state of panic price may slice through support at 1.2750 and 1.2550 hard and fast.

SPX500 Hourly

2010-05-08T01:32:00.000+10:00

Here is my hourly SPX chart. I think we are currently reversing in a wave C of 4 and will test above 1140 before turning bearish again. Not much else to say on this one except I am very bearish long term on equities from this point. I will be looking to get short again at around 1150/1160 with my stop at the wave 1 low of 1180.

AUD/USD Daily

2010-05-07T12:35:00.000+10:00

My AUD/USD count is similar to my AUD/JPY count in the fact that I think we are about to drop in a wave 5 of 1 down. As long as the USD remains weak against the Yen however, it is a better idea to trade the AUD/JPY than this pair. As you can seen resistance at 94 was too strong for the Aussie to break through and price has fallen off sharply in what looks to be an impulsive third wave. If equities remain weak expect the AUD/USD to as well.

AUD/JPY Hourly

2010-05-07T12:08:00.001+10:00

There were some huge moves away from risk in the recent US session. Price has rebounded quite strongly however I think this move is a sign of things to come, and the push up is just the last of the optimists throwing their money away before the markets come crashing down in a state of panic and fear. I am currently short the AUD/JPY as I believe it is the best barometer of risk being the highest yielding currency pair. Price has rebounded to a level which I believe is a good spot to get short so I will be adding to my position soon. Look to sell at 83 with a stop at 84.

CAD/JPY Daily Update

2010-05-07T00:33:00.000+10:00

There don't seem to be many obvious trades for me to discuss at the moment. The sharp drop from the top in many pairs hasn't had the immediate follow through I would expect if this were the beginning of a new panic driven cycle. While I am still bearish on equities and commodities, it is possible there will be one more push higher before a turn. Here is my daily CAD/JPY chart, which points to one last push up before panic and fear retake the markets and prices plummet. If price does continue to fall and 88.458 is breached, than my count is off and it will signal that the top is likely in.

SPX Head and Shoulders Neckline Breach

2010-05-05T12:43:00.001+10:00

Looks like we're finally getting some action. There were big moves in several markets overnight, gold has fallen sharply and looks to have topped out for a while at least. Here is a head and shoulders pattern which has formed on the SPX and as you can see the neckline has been breached. I am going to get short on a retest of this line with a minimum target of 1142. Although I will likely hold for much longer than that as this may be the top in this market we have all been waiting for.

NZD/USD Daily

2010-04-29T14:04:00.001+10:00

Here is a daily of the NZD/USD pair. As you can see price has been struggling upwards in a very choppy fashion for the best part of three months. The pair has formed a vague corrective channel which I believe will continue to contain price until the next move down begins. I will be looking to short on a retest of channel resistance at 0.73. My stop will be at 0.7440 near the previous high.

SPX Video Analysis

2010-04-25T22:30:00.000+10:00

Roy has just sent me a link to a short video analysis he has done on the SPX. Click here to see it.

Still My Favourite EUR/USD Count

2010-04-23T01:40:00.000+10:00

Here is an update of my favoured EUR/USD count. The wave 4 triangle count was seconds ago invalidated on a push just below the 1.3268 level. I believe an Ending Diagonal is forming and expect price to push slightly lower before retracing in a wave 4 back to around the 1.3450 area. Ending Diagonals usually form when price moves too fast too quickly, which fits well here as the drop from the top at the end of 2009 has been immense. I am not looking to trade the EUR/USD under the current circumstances as I believe the choppy price action does not offer a worthwhile risk/reward ratio.

EUR/GBP Trade Idea

2010-04-21T12:32:00.004+10:00

I think EUR/GBP is nearing completion of a massive triangle and will soon rise sharply. I have pictured an alternate bullish count which has the next move of the triangle being a C leg of D (see Alt. D) with an E down to come before another push to much higher levels. Either way I expect 0.86 to hold and for price to push higher from near current levels. The next big move up (green wave 5) will take several months to complete. I will be looking to get long from near the rising trend line support with an open target. Stops will be moved to cover profit when price has moved sufficiently higher, in case this is a B wave triangle [To see Vasan's bearish EUR/GBP count click here] or the triangle is not yet complete (see Alt. count). For all counts a bull move is expected in the short term making this a high probability and fairly safe trade.

AUD/JPY Update

2010-04-20T14:28:00.000+10:00

The AUD/JPY pair looks to have completed an impulse to the downside and has retraced sharply. Expect the 61.8% Fib level to provide some resistance. I am currently short this pair in expectation of some follow through after Friday's sharp decline. It is however possible that the impulse I have labeled as the red 1 is actually a C wave of a correction, and there is further upside to come in this pair. If price breaches 86.70 my bias will change from bearish to neutral until the picture clears up.

Another USD/JPY Possibility

2010-04-20T00:54:00.000+10:00

Here is another possible count for the correction USD/JPY has been stuck in for most of this month. The move from 91.60 looks to be corrective so I think we are in for one more drop before a move upwards. I am going to attempt a small long position from around 91.40, with a 30 pip stop. Right now there are numerous possible counts for this pair, so if you are a conservative trader I would recommend staying away from it and focusing on something else. If equities drop off hard over the next few days as many people are expecting, USD/JPY will likely remain weak.

GBP/USD Update

2010-04-19T10:00:00.001+10:00

The GBP/USD pair gapped down significantly on open today, probably due to fears about the Volcano in Iceland and the long term effects it could have on the UK economy. I think the the top is likely in for wave 4 and we will continue down with the longer term trend from here on. It is fairly likely that the gap will close, and the pair may be forming a leading diagonal from the top at 1.5524 so a pullback is likely. Take this opportunity to get short with a stop above the recent high. Risk:Reward here is good as our target is below 1.46.

AUD/JPY Hourly

2010-04-17T02:25:00.001+10:00

AUD/JPY has just dropped off sharply along with equities and gold. I have taken a short based on this very bearish count, with a stop at 0.86. The sharp decline is typical of a 3rd of a 3rd wave so I have a reasonable amount of confidence in this chart. Either way risk is fairly minimal (60 pips). Target level is to be determined at a later date. The next zone of support once 0.85 breaks is not until 0.84. I hope you've all had a profitable week - it's been a tricky one! Have a wonderful weekend.

GBP/USD Daily Chart

2010-04-16T23:16:00.000+10:00

Here is my long term chart for the GBP/USD pair. I think the move down from 2.04 (not shown) is a completed impulse down, and we are now correcting in a large ABC. As you can see the B leg of this move is not yet complete, and I expect a small push higher over the coming week to complete wave 4 before a sharp decline begins to complete the C leg of red wave B. This move will likely take several months.

USD/CAD Trade Plan

2010-04-15T14:14:00.000+10:00

Here is a daily chart of the USD/CAD pair. As you can see the pair has fallen from its high in a complex corrective manner. As 5 waves down from the second X are clearly visible, I am expecting a small bounce back up in a B wave before another impulse down completes the zig-zag Z. Wave 1 started off the screen at 0.9058 so as long at price does not breach that level, this count remains valid.

Here is a closer view of the 5 waves down that I spoke of earlier. As you can see the move looks complete or at least nearly complete. I have taken a small long position in the hope that the bottom is in at 0.997 with minimal risk as my stop is only 20 pips away at 0.995 (beneath the recent low) If this level is breached I will wait for another 5 waves up and 3 waves down on a smaller time frame to try and get long again. My target is between the first and fourth wave extremes at 1.03 and 1.037.

Facebook Forum Group

2010-04-15T00:43:00.001+10:00

I have started a Facebook Group to act as a forum for people to upload their charts, discuss their ideas and gain feedback from other chartists. I am hoping to build up a solid user base where people who are learning about Elliott Wave can come for guidance and feedback, and where experienced Elliotticians can go to talk about their ideas and expectations for the future. CLICK HERE to check out the page and please join if you think you might have something to offer or gain from the Elliott Wave community.

AUD/USD Hourly Chart

2010-04-13T21:59:00.000+10:00

The AUD/USD is setting up to form a nice Head and Shoulders pattern on the hourly. I will be looking to get short from 0.93 with a stop at 0.9390. Once the neckline is broken the target will be 0.9060, however my longer term ED count for the AUD/USD would have 0.90 as a likely target.

USD/JPY Hourly Chart Update

2010-04-13T02:43:00.000+10:00

Here is an hourly USD/JPY count. As you can see recent price action has remained range bound between former resistance at 93.77 and the 38.2% Fibonacci of the previous move up. I am expecting a break from this wedge over the coming session. If price does break higher from these levels it will indicate a very weak Yen, as neither the 2nd nor the 4th waves (green) will have retraced a substantial percentage of the previous wave. I have a buy order set at 93.00 and am keeping my stops at 91.1. Initial target will be 95.5.

EUR/USD Daily Chart Possibilities

2010-04-12T18:36:00.000+10:00

Here are a few scenarios that could be developing in the EUR/USD pair. All three of these possibilities are based on the assumption the the move down from 1.3820 to 1.3270 is a 3 wave move. I have seen numerous EW charts trying to force this move as an impulse when the proportions really don't look right as a 5 wave move. While it is not impossible that I am incorrect, I think it is highly unlikely that the move is a 5 and not a 3. The chart to the left is of an ending diagonal wave 5 and is my primary count.

This next chart is of an irregular flat wave 4. For this count to remain valid, the wave 1 extreme at 1.42 must not be breached.

My final chart for the EUR/USD pair is a wave 4 triangle count. For this count to remain valid price action must remain below the top of wave a at 1.3820.

USD/JPY 5 Minute Chart

2010-04-10T00:01:00.000+10:00

USD/JPY has moved from the low at 92.83 in an impulsive manner. Price only just missed my long position order at 92.70, however I believe the current wave 2 pullback offers a good opportunity to get in on the trade. I am going to attempt a long from 93.2, based on this chart. My stop loss will be just beneath the low at 92.80 so risk is minimal. Target is 95.50.

USD/CAD 4 Hour Impulse Down Looks Complete

2010-04-09T23:35:00.002+10:00

Here is my 4 Hour Count of the USD/CAD pair. A clear 5 waves down looks complete, which I think is the A of a Z in a triple 3 complex correction. Disappointing Canadian Employment Data has seen the US Dollar surge over the past hours, which has formed a very bullish looking candle, and the beginnings of what I expect will play out to be a 3rd wave of a zig-zag. I got long at 1.003 yesterday, and price is testing this level now in what appears to be a minor wave 2 pullback. I will be adding to my long position soon with minimal risk with a stop at 0.999. Expect a retracement to at least the 38.2% Fibonacci, which is also near the 4th wave extreme at around 1.03.

USD/JPY Still Correcting

2010-04-09T01:52:00.000+10:00

Here is a 15 Minute Chart of the USD/JPY correction so far. The move down from the top at 94.80 is clearly corrective, however this red ABC which is about to complete may just be the three waves of an A of a large flat or a triangle still to play out. Either way I am going to get out of my short position at 92.70, or if price reverses hard and my target is not hit, at 93.75. I am going to attempt to buy back in at around 92.70 or after a clear 5 wave move down from the black 4. Keep you stops at 91, targeting 95.50.

AUD/JPY Hourly Chart

2010-04-09T01:15:00.002+10:00

I have taken a long position in AUD/JPY based on this EW count. Whether or not the current wave on the daily (bold, black numbers) is forming a 3 or a C is not clear, however it seems fairly apparent to me that the Australian Dollar is moving higher against the Yen. I took my long position several hours ago right on the 38.2% Fib of the recent red wave 3 up at 85.92. I announced the trade on my twitter feed where I post all my trades and ideas but I wasn't able to post this analysis any sooner. Price action on the 1 minute chart from the recent low looks corrective however, so if you are interested in getting long it isn't too late. I would suggest placing long orders at 85.50 with a stop at the wave 1 extreme at 84.65. Target is 88.30.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

2010-04-07T23:38:00.001+10:00

Here is a ending diagonal count for the AUD/USD pair. If this count is correct it would explain the three wave move from the red 4 at 0.8578. Price has recently broken above the downward sloping trend line which has been very important on several occasions in the past. This is a bullish sign, however I am not certain price action can stay above the line for long. The move from the red 4 definitely doesn't look impulsive so price action using EW can be hard to define. There is always the possibility we are still consolidating and price will remain withing the 0.86-0.94 range which has held it for the most part for over 7 months. At this point in time with all the uncertainty associated with this pair I would not recommend taking any positions in it.

Using Elliott Wave to Count Complex Corrections

2010-04-07T22:24:00.000+10:00

While searching for some information on how to count complex corrections using EW to help a friend better understand my charts, I stumbled across a very good video on the topic. I thought I'd share it with you all because if you are not yet an accomplished Elliottician, you may find it very useful. To see the video, click here.

Game On USD/JPY!

2010-04-02T22:49:00.002+10:00

Here is my updated count of USD/JPY. A spike on the NFP release has pushed the pair above 94 in what I believe is one final thrust before a sizable correction. Even if my longer term count is incorrect price is likely to fall to at least 92.5 from these levels. Below is a daily chart going back to 2003 showing RSI readings. As you can see RSI has never manager to make it above 80 for more than a few minutes and we are at those levels as I write this. I am taking a short position here against 95.5 with a minimum target or 93. Move stops to protect profit on a move back below 94.

AUD/JPY Refresh

2010-04-02T16:25:00.000+10:00

Here is a total rehash of my AUD/JPY count. The double top has been broken putting an end to my hopes of the massive H&S possibility that could have been forming. The 61.8% Fibonacci of the entire move down has also given way, and recent price action is looking very bullish. I am now no longer bearish on this pair, while I still expect a pullback soon - Daily RSI is well overbought - my longer term preferred expectation is not to the upside. The CAD/JPY chart looks almost identical. I am not currently trading this pair. I will keep you posted if I see any opportunities in it arising.

Friday 2nd April Position Updates

2010-04-02T13:52:00.002+10:00

USD/JPY: I will be looking to get out of my USD/JPY short position very soon. The move from the top at 95.05 does not look impulsive so I suspect there will be another move higher before a sizeable pullback. Although Daily RSI is still well into overbought territory, I don't think a short term top is in just yet. If you are short this pair I suggest you do the same. I will be looking to get out for a small profit or at a minimum at break even.

GBP/JPY: Similar to U/J the recent move down from the top does not look like a motive wave. While I am not saying further downside is not possible, it looks highly likely to me that the top at 143.65 will be breached sometime in the near term. I am getting out of my short position at market for a small 50 pip profit. With a view to possibly get in at a higher level.

USD/CAD: While I still favour USD/CAD to the short side, my sell order at 1.025 is now unlikely to be hit as price has dropped away further since my post on this pair. I will still be watching for an opportunity to get short on a pullback however. Keep an eye on the price of Oil for clues as USD/CAD and Crude markets have a high negative correlation.

New Elliott Wave Video Analysis

2010-04-01T23:12:00.001+10:00

Roy, The Elliott Wave Practitioner, has just released another one of his daily videos for everyone to see. I will likely only have free access to these for a few days so make the most of them while you can. In today's video he analyzes EUR/USD, USD/DKK, USD/CHF, USD/ZAR, USD Cash Index, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, HG Copper, Light Crude, Heating Oil, Gasoline, Spot Gold, Spot Silver, TSX, SPX, Rifin, EUSTOXX50, IBEX 35, Italy's MIB , FTSE, DBA, Soybeans, Soybean Meal, and Wheat. Click the link to the left to see his latest video.

USD/JPY Update

2010-04-01T22:53:00.000+10:00

Here is an updated USD/JPY chart. I have modified the count slightly to fit in better with the unfolding pattern. I think the pair has topped or is very near to topping, and have taken a short position with a stop at 94.5. I will be moving my stop loss to break even on a move down past 93.

USD/JPY Nearing Former Resistance

2010-04-01T16:15:00.001+10:00

Here is my daily USD/JPY count. I think the pair is about to turn downwards in the final wave of an X correction. Daily RSI is well overbought and there are also multiple divergences on smaller time frames. The pair's recent move upwards was sharp and fast, a trait which is common before ending diagonals are formed, and even if my longer term count is incorrect, the pair is due for a pullback very soon. I expect price to slightly breach former resistance at 93.77 before pulling back to at least 92.2 but probably much further.

Here is an hourly chart showing the ED I am talking about. Wave iii of the ED, although it looks like it could be an 5 wave move, does not fit correctly as wave 3 is the shortest. This gives merit to the possibility that this count is correct. I will be taking a short position from right above the former resistance line, at 93.90, which is also just beneath where wave i of the ED will be equal to wave v of the ED, and also where a of v of the ED is equal to c of v of the ED. I will be keeping my stop at 94.50, and moving it to protect my profit on a move back down beneath 93.

In Depth Elliott Wave Analysis Video

2010-04-01T00:42:00.004+10:00

For a limited time my friend and mentor Roy, The Elliott Wave Practitioner, will be allowing access to his daily videos through my site. He offers thorough analysis of multiple markets with a focus on Elliott Wave trading. I owe Roy for much of my trading knowledge and I have a lot of respect for his analysis. No matter what level of trader you are, everyone can gain something from watching these videos. Click the link to the left to see today's video, where he covers the EUR/USD, USD Cash Index, USD/ZAR, EUR/ZAR, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, USD/CAD, Spot Gold in Yen, USD and Euro, Light Crude, Heating Oil, Gasoline, TNX, TYX, TLT, TSX, SPX, Rifin, EUSTOXX50, IBEX 35, FTSE, and Italy's MIB.

GBP/JPY Trade Idea

2010-03-31T15:57:00.001+10:00

GBP/JPY has broken back up through the strong resistance/support level at around 140 and is looking bullish on the smaller time frames. To the left you can see my daily count and below is a zoomed in 4 hour chart of recent price action. The fourth wave extreme of the move from 150.72 coincides perfectly with the 61.8% Fibonacci of the drop at 143.60. This gives extra weighting to the 143.50/70 zone and I expect that if price retraces back up to that level, it will provide extremely strong resistance and likely be the turning point for the pair. I will be looking to short from 143.50, and keeping my stop at 145.50.

USD/CAD Trade Idea

2010-03-30T12:09:00.000+10:00

Here is a 4 Hour Chart of the USD/CAD pair. As you can see price bounced off the 38.2% Fibonacci in what looks to be a consolidatory fourth wave. The EW guideline of alternation fits perfectly with this count, with wave 2 being short and sharp and retracing greater than 61.8% of wave 1, and wave 4 being slower and flatter having only retraced around 38.2% of wave 3.

Below is a 30 minute chart showing a possible count for the correction and the Fibonacci levels where I will be looking to short from. 1.025 is the spot where I will be placing my sell order, and I'll be keeping my stops at 1.031. The more conservative investor may prefer to put their stop at the wave 1 low around 1.038. If price moves beyond this level this count will be invalidated.

GBP/JPY Nearing Daily Resistance

2010-03-29T14:39:00.001+10:00

Keep an eye on this one. GBP/JPY has broken a very important support line and is back testing the bottom of it. I expect price will not retrace much above 1.40 if at all and then expect some decent follow through to the downside.

AUD/JPY Trade Idea

2010-03-26T13:35:00.002+10:00

While my CAD/JPY count was invalidated by a break above the January high, my AUD/JPY is still very much possible. Here is my 4 hour chart. As you can see a final 5th wave is needed to complete the impulse from 81.72. I expect this final wave will complete at around 85.20, which is where wave 1 is equal to wave 5 (shown below), however if it pushes beyond there it will encounter a significant resistance zone where several major highs have formed in the past. This move is beginning to look tired, as you can see in the chart, the A leg of 2 was much sharper than the C leg has been so far. RSI divergence also warns of impending downside.

Here is a close up hourly of the C leg of green wave 2 so far. As you can see the final 5 does not yet look complete. Expect a push above 85 to complete this move. I will be looking to short from 85.10 with a stop above the recent high at 86.20.

EUR/JPY Hourly

2010-03-24T23:37:00.002+10:00

After watching Jamie's video just now I've decided to take a EUR/JPY short position. To the left is an hourly chart of the pair. The risk to reward ratio on this trade is very good, as a stop can be placed at the wave 1 low at 123.22 about 50 pips away from the current price level. The Elliott Channel also corresponds well with the Fibonacci ratios of waves 1 and 5, so my target will be just below 120, at around the same level as the 161.8% Fib of wave 1.

CAD/JPY Update

2010-03-19T13:09:00.007+10:00

Here is a 4 Hour Chart of the CAD/JPY pair, which I have been watching closely for some time now. In my opinion there have been very few obvious trades over the past few weeks, as price has been very volatile in some markets (EUR/USD for example) and very sluggish in others. I have adjusted my C wave count slightly as you can see in the chart, to better fit with recent price action. Obviously the ED I was following has not completed yet as we have not yet had a sharp fall to the downside. This adjusted count sits much better with Fib ratios than my previous expanding ED one, with waves 1 and 3 being almost exactly equal in length, and wave 5 expected to be around 61.8% of the size of both of the aforementioned.

Here is a 15 minute close-up of the contracting ending diagonal which I now think is nearing completion. Canada's CPI figures come out in the coming US Session which I think will be the perfect catalyst for a sharp fall from current levels and the beginning of a large wave 3 down for the pair. Following are a few more indicators suggesting this pair is about to fall sharply.

Here is a daily chart of CAD/JPY shown with the ATR (Average True Range). As you can see the ATR has fallen to almost as low as the levels of late 2008, just before the massive surge in the price of the pair. This tells us that increasing volatility is likely in the near future.

Here is an hourly chart of the pair, showing multiple divergences in RSI (Relative Strength Index) where CAD/JPY made a new high but the RSI did not. This is just an example of the divergence we are seeing across the board. There are many more examples of divergence across all time frames, which all point to a nearing top forming in the pair.

Another reason I favour this trade so highly is the incredible Risk to Reward ratio it offers. Stops should be placed just above the double top at 90.60 and the minimum target for this trade is 83.2. I suggest placing a short order at 89.70 or if you're going to be watching the markets when CPI figures are released wait for a spike high over-throw of the ED before taking a short position. Good luck!

CAD/JPY Trade Idea

2010-03-17T21:13:00.000+10:00

Here is a CAD/JPY hourly chart showing what appears to be a 5 wave 'C' rally from the low. Recent price action seems to be in a series of 3 waves movements, and in an expanding diagonal formation, which is quite rare. If this count is correct, price cannot exceed 89.95 however conservative traders may wish to place their stops above the yearly high at 90.62. I have drawn in the Fibonacci levels for wave 3 and projected them onto wave 5 for you to see. As wave 1 is longer than wave 3 wave 5 must be shorter as wave 3 can never be the shortest wave.

Here is a 15 minute close up of the expanding ending diagonal. As you can see we are very close to critical levels for the pair. I will be looking to short at 89.75 with a long term hold target well below 82.

USD/JPY 4 Hour Update

2010-03-16T13:09:00.001+10:00

Here is a 4 Hour Chart of my USD/JPY count. I think there will likely be one more push higher to complete an Ending Diagonal c of B of the triple 3 correction before a final C leg begins. As I have mentioned in previous postings, expect resistance from the downward sloping trend line off the two recent highs. 91.60 is also the 61.8% Fib of the entire consolidative drop from 93.77.

USD/JPY Facing Strong Resistance at 91.30

2010-03-13T01:10:00.002+10:00

The USD/JPY is coming up to a very strong resistance area around 91.30. This area has provided solid resistance in the past (3/2) and is also near the downward sloping trend line drawn off the two highs from 7/1 and 19/2. A double zig-zag from 88.14 appears to be forming, and C of the second zig-zag will equal A at 91.36. I think a short from this area makes a reasonably safe trade. I will be looking to short from 91.30 and keeping my stop at 92.2.

GBP/USD Update

2010-03-12T13:16:00.000+10:00

Here is an updated GBP/USD chart. I think the pair is forming an Ending Diagonal C wave to complete this correction. I got out of my short from 1.5075 at break even and will look to re-enter higher at around 1.5105.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart

2010-03-11T20:26:00.002+10:00

Here is an Hourly of my GBP/USD count. I think the pair completed its corrective phase at 1.5196 and is currently carving out a wave 2 before price drops lower. I think the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of this move at 1.5075 will be a good place to get short. Keep your stops at 1.52.

CAD/JPY Charts

2010-03-11T13:52:00.006+10:00

The CAD/JPY 4 Hour Chart looks almost identical to the AUD/JPY that I posted a few days ago. An impulse up looks to be nearing completion in a C wave. I expect another high before we break sharply lower. RSI is divergent across all time frames, however wave count suggests this move up is not yet complete. As the move from 86.95-88.73 looks to be in 3 waves, there are two scenarios I think are most likely. Below are 15 minute examples of these.

Above is my favoured count. It is possible that CAD/JPY (and likely AUD/JPY also) is forming and Ending Diagonal, in which price will move up and down jaggedly until a top forms, probably around 89.60.

Below is another possibility. Due the the 3 wave nature of the move from 86.95, it is possible that wave 4 is not yet finished, and a 5 wave move down to complete the wave is needed before further upside action occurs. If this is correct, I expect wave 5 to complete just above 89.

USD/JPY 15 Minute Chart

2010-03-08T20:29:00.000+10:00

Here is a 15 Minute Chart of the USD/JPY pair, showing two very clear impulses up so far with another likely to come to form an impulse of a higher degree. I will be looking to get long at 89.80 with my stop at the wave 1 extreme at 89.25. 91 will be my first target, but if the wave looks likely to extend this will need to be revised.

AUD/JPY 4 Hour Chart

2010-03-06T02:27:00.003+10:00

There has been a lot of speculation recently on risk aversion returning to the markets with a big fall in commodity currencies against the Yen. However following the NFP release this evening (I am in Australia) there has been a sizable increase in risk appetite. This has led to strength in the AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY (another pair many Elliotticians have been focusing on of late). Above is my 4 hour chart of the AUD/JPY pair. I think there is still more upside to come (similar to the CAD/JPY) before a major reversal. I will be watching for a clear 5 wave move up before I look to get short.

Below is a close up of the B wave down which several people seem to count as a 5 wave move.

EUR/USD Double Zig-zag

2010-03-04T21:39:00.000+10:00

This is my current view of the EUR/USD pair. I think a double zig-zag is forming, primarily because the price action of the beginning of the wave I have labeled as X does not look impulsive, even on a minute scale, so I think there is another downside corrective move to come, most likely another zig-zag, which should take the pair closer to the 61.8% Fib where I will be looking to buy.

The EUR/USD has bottomed

2010-03-04T11:19:00.000+10:00

The EUR/USD looks to have bottomed at 1.3435. I was completely expecting another low and tried several times to get short but to no avail. I lost out repeatedly trying to pick a top that never even eventuated. Two things I can learn from this experience:

1. Don't get too attached to any single count. There are always bullish and bearish counts, and it is important to always be aware that either could eventuate.

2. Don't over trade. Making multiple small risky trades in the hope of catching the turn is just stupid. If I'm going to take risks like that I may as well go to the Casino. Boredom is no excuse.

I am setting myself a limit of 3 trades per day from now on until I learn better trading habits. I am going to set my orders and stop losses and try and walk away. I'm not a scalper nor do I aspire to be one. I am ideally chasing trades that last over several days and net 100-500 pips.

Enough about that anyways, here is my EUR/USD count for now. The range I spoke about last night has broken to the upside, and I expect another wave up before a Fib pullback. I have drawn the Elliott Channel and some levels based on Fibonacci ratios where I think the pair might reach before rebounding. I am not going to try and scalp from here because it is possible that the 5 waves up is already complete. For Jamie Saettele's video with his take on the pair click here.

My trade plan is to wait for a significant pullback, be it from the current high, or after another move up, and to buy at the 61.8% retracement. If my prediction in the above chart is correct I will be looking to buy at 1.3570 with my stop at 1.3440.

Range Bound EUR/USD

2010-03-03T22:09:00.000+10:00

Trying to work out the direction of the EUR/USD based on EWT has been painful for me recently, so I am going to ignore any more counts until this consolidation is over, and focus on some simple technical analysis. As you can see from the above chart the pair is in sitting in a clearly defined range between 1.345 and 1.368. At present price is nearing the top of the range, and RSI on the hourly is nearing overbought levels. The long term overall trend is down. All these things point to future weakness in the Euro, so I am going to attempt to range trade this pair by shorting at the top of the range, with my stop just above it.

A Different EUR/USD ED Count

2010-03-03T17:57:00.000+10:00

Here is another possible EUR/USD Ending Diagonal count. For this count to remain valid price should not exceed 1.3690. Price falling beneath 1.36 will be a very bearish indicator in the short term and I will be taking a short position if this occurs, however if price pushes above 1.37 it is likely the ED is complete and we should wait for a pullback to get long against the low at 1.3440.

USDX Ending Diagonal Update

2010-03-03T14:09:00.000+10:00

The USDX may still be completing a B leg of its fifth wave. For this count to stay valid however a sharp move upwards will need to occur very soon, probably within the next session. Price will ideally stay above 8015, and because wave 1 is greater than wave 3 by price, wave 5 needs to be shorter, so wave 5 should not push above 8210.

EUR/USD Update

2010-03-02T20:30:00.001+10:00

I have been examining the wave count in the USDX and current price action doesn't fit with the count I just posted in the EUR/USD. I have reviewed my charts and I now think we may still be in a C leg of the final B wave with the final C down still yet to begin. I am now sitting out until I see a 5 wave move down to complete the 5th wave of the ED from which point I will be getting long.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart ED

2010-03-02T20:10:00.001+10:00

My EUR/USD count is inversely similar to my USDX Ending Diagonal Count, however the final C of the ED in the E/U is much more clear than the its parallel in the USDX. The recent spike down to 1.3435 has been met with strong resistance and an ending diagonal may be complete. I think it is more likely however that this was just a wave 4 and there will be one more sharp spike down followed by an even quicker reversal to complete the ED. If my count is correct there will likely be a sharp retracement over the coming weeks to the near the origin of the diagonal, around 1.458. Look to get long just below 1.34 or on a push above 1.352.

US Dollar Index 4 Hour Chart

2010-02-26T22:58:00.000+10:00

Here is my Ending Diagonal count for the USDX. I think there is one more leg up left to go before a big retracement happens in line with overall US Dollar weakness. As the price of the EUR/USD comprises of 57.6% of the USDX, I expect the final move up will correlate with a spike down in the pair.

NZD/USD 4 Hour Chart

2010-02-24T21:28:00.002+10:00

Here is my take on the NZD/USD. The pair has been consolidating in a complex correction, range bound between 0.68 and 0.71 for several weeks now. The move down from the top at 0.7080 definitely does not look impulsive, so it is likely this correction still had yet to complete. I think the final Z leg will likely break above the recent high to test the 50% Fibonacci and possibly even the 61.8%. I will be looking to short from this area.

Another USD/CAD Possibility

2010-02-24T20:36:00.000+10:00

That last move up in the US Dollar may not be the wave 5 everyone was expecting. It divides up too well into 3 waves for me not to consider this possibility. Wave 4 may be a complex correction and may still be yet to complete. Price should still be contained within the Elliott Channel, look to buy on a pullback to near the line.

USD/CAD 15 Minute Chart

2010-02-24T16:34:00.000+10:00

Price action in the USD/CAD has been clearly confined to within an Elliott Channel so far. As you can see wave 2 has retraced more than 61.8% of wave 1, so it is likely that the wave 4 retracement will be very shallow. I am not expecting price to reach the 38.2% retracement line, as it will likely be turned around by the Elliott Channel resistance if it even makes it to that level. If price manages to touch on the lower channel line, this would be the ideal place to get long, however if you aren't able to sit at your computer and watch every minute, 1.0520 would be a good place to put your buy order. Keep stops at 1.0440.

If wave 5 is equal to wave 1 than the price target should be about 1.0585, however it is possible that wave 5 will extend. The US Dollar has been strongest against the Canadian Dollar compared to all the other majors over the last few sessions, and this may continue into the coming session.

USD/JPY 15 Minute Chart

2010-02-24T13:36:00.001+10:00

Here is what I think is going on in USD/JPY. The sharp drop the broke through support has the look of a third of a third wave, so some follow through is likely. The black wave 2 retracement was extremely shallow, so I expect a larger correction from black wave 4, which is completing as I write this. Wave 3 is approximately equal to 1.618 x wave 1. I would not be surprised if the former trend line support is re-tested. I will be looking to take a short position near this line at 90.50, with a stop at 91.05. Target is still yet to be determined.

AUD/USD Update

2010-02-23T22:19:00.000+10:00

Here is an update of my AUD/USD chart from today. The pair has bounced from near the 61.8% level of the A of Z move. The beginning of the third wave has probably begun and we should see a sharp fall from these levels very soon. Look to get short with stop above the recent high.

AUD/USD Hourly Chart Update

2010-02-23T15:10:00.001+10:00

I have revised my corrective count for the AUD/USD pair. I now think price is forming a triple 3 and is about to complete its final C leg up to the 0.9130 level. As you can see price has just completed a B leg triangle. I have drawn in the Fibonacci levels to show where A of Z will equal C of Z. This is where I expect Z to complete. I will be looking to short from around 0.9125 with a stop above the high at 0.9330. From my larger count you can see that this is a 2nd wave so it is likely there is a lot of downside to come. If my count is correct I will be holding this position for the several month at a minimum, as the AUD falls to below 0.80.