USD/JPY Reaching Resistance Zone

Above is a 4 hour chart of the USD/JPY pair. I have drawn horizontal lines at previous resistance points from earlier in the year. The pair is currently sitting within the confines of the two lines. A clear up trend support line can also be seen. I expect the pair to fall back from the current area and break the support line. Wait for a break and pullback to the trend line to get short. For a USD/JPY Delta count that supports my analysis click here.

AUD/USD Trend Line Retest

The Aussie has rebounded against the Greenback far more than I had anticipated. My previous count may be incorrect and 5 waves down may already be complete at 0.8735. Either way expect the neckline of the Head and Shoulders pattern to provide formidable resistance and offer an excellent shorting opportunity. I will be adding to my short positions from here. Keep stops at 0.92.

AUD/USD Trade Idea

The AUD/USD looks like it is currently forming a 4th wave which should complete at around the 0.8920 area which is both near the 4th wave extreme of the last 5 waves down and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of that same drop. We can see that wave 1 retraced to just beneath the 61.8% Fib, so wave 4 will likely retrace slightly beyond its 38.2% retracement. I will be looking to short from 0.8910 with a stop at .9015.

USD/CAD False Breakout

The USD/CAD made a false breakout from the wedge which has defined price movement in this pair for the past several months. I am still confident the price will revert topside but I think it is likely that price will fall just beneath the recent support at 1.042 before it does. This move coincides with USD weakness I expect across most of the majors (except GBP) for the rest of the year. The five wave move from 1.02 is clearly impulsive and the price action is clearly corrective so it is highly probable that price will eventually breakout in an upwards direction. Look to buy at 1.036 with a stop at 1.02.

EUR/USD Trend Line Break

The EUR/USD pair has broken above the trend line that had offered resistance multiple times over the past few weeks. A clear 5 waves up are almost complete, look for a pullback towards the 1.43 area to look to get long with a target of 1.4550. Place your stop beneath the recent low at 1.4220.

GBP/USD Head and Shoulders

This 4 hour chart of the GBP/USD pair shows a clear head and shoulders reversal pattern. The neckline has been decisively broken. A measured target from the neckline break is just below 1.57. Keep stops just above the neckline at 1.63, however price will preferably stay beneath the downward sloping trend channel pictured.  I have added to my short positions today at 1.602.

EUR/USD Down Trend Channel

Here is an hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair. Presently, there are numerous competing counts so I have not labeled this chart, however for the count I think is most probable click here http://www.dailyfx.com/technical_analysis/elliott_wave/. As you can see in the above chart, the Euro has been falling within a clearly defined channel. I expect price to rebound towards the top of the channel from where I will be looking to short.

EUR/CHF Triangle Breakdown

Here is a daily chart of the EUR/CHF price action showing a large triangle that has been in action for over a year. The triangle has finally broken to the downside, on the back of concern about Greece's escalating debts and reduction in the country's credit rating. Continued weakness is expected as unease about the state of the Greek economy will not be easy to alleviate.

Here is an hourly chart of the breakout. There is a strong support line at around 1.5010 which may now act as resistance. It is possible that price will continue to decline from current levels and the entire correction is already complete, however I think a further pullback is more likely, to around the 1.5020-1.5060 area before further downside. Look to short from these levels, with a stop at around 1.5150. For more info on the expected weakness of the Euro in the coming months see Jamie's latest video at http://www.youtube.com/dailyfxnews.

GBP/USD Range Break

The GBP/USD pair had been trading within a clearly defined range for over a week, but has recently broken to the downside. Price has since pulled back to retest support, which looks to be a good shorting opportunity with further downside expected. Look to sell at 1.624 with a stop above former resistance at 1.638.

USD/CAD Daily Chart Trend Line Break

Here is a daily chart of the USD/CAD pair, which has finally closed above an incredibly important trend line which has been resistance for almost 5 months. Look to buy on a pullback to resistance, at around 1.065 with a stop at 1.04.

USD/CAD Wave 2 Flat

Here is a wave 2 Irregular Flat correction hourly chart for USD/CAD. If this is the correct count we are likely to see a pullback in USD strength over the next session or two. Look to buy on the 61.8% Fibonacci at 1.055.

AUD/USD Head & Shoulder Chart

The AUD/USD is touching on the H&S neckline that I have been speaking about for the last month or so. It is likely there will be a small correction before price breaks through support. Once price has dropped through the neckline wait for a retest of the neckline to get short, with a stop about the recent high at 0.9180.

EUR/USD Ending Diagonal Count

It is possible that the EUR/USD has completed an ED and is about to rebound. It is also possible that one more small leg down will be occur to finish the throw over of the ED. Initial target is 1.476 however it is likely that price will retrace further through to 1.49, if we have indeed seen the end of wave 1.

AUD/USD Hourly Chart Update

I really don't think the AUD is ready to break through the H&S neckline just yet. Here is an update of my previous chart. I am still bullish short term. If price reaches 0.8990 it is highly likely to bounce back, even if it is only stalling the break through the neckline. Long orders should be placed here.

A New USD/JPY Count

My last USD/JPY count was obviously incorrect, but fortunately some profits were locked in. Here is a new 30 minute chart of the USD/JPY pair. I think there is more corrective price action to come before any larger moves on a daily scale. I would not recommend taking a position in this pair until the pattern becomes clearer.

USD/CAD Trade Idea

A clear impulse is present from the low at 1.0479. This means it is likely that after an A-B-C retracement USD strength will resume. Look to buy at 1.055 with a stop just beneath the low at 1.0479.

AUD/USD Hourly Chart

The last black B wave down looks very much like a 3 wave move (and not impulsive at all), which has me doubting that that AUD is ready to break through the H&S neckline just yet. I expect a bit of strength over the coming sessions.

USD/CAD Wedge Breakout?

Here is a 2 hour chart of the USD/CAD pair. I was hoping for a pullback to the 1.035 area to get long, but I may not get the chance. Here is a chart of what is possibly taking place. Corrective patterns like this can be extremely difficult to define so the pair may consolidate for longer before a breakout, however, the wedge that has been forming is due for a break and it appears as though it is about to occur. If this count is correct, look to get long on a pullback to the 61.8% Fibonacci of the impulse up from the green B/2.

USD/JPY 10 Minute Chart

So far my short trade from Friday has turned out to be quite profitable. Since the top, price has been clearly defined in a downward sloping channel. It is likely that there will be another low to complete the motive wave, however if price breaks sharply through this channel I will be looking to get long on a pullback and retest of the top channel line. I have moved my stop loss to 88.8 to protect profits.

GBP/USD Range 30 Minute Chart

The GBP/USD pair looks to be trading within a clearly defined 160 pip range (1.618 - 1.632). Look to sell near the top and buy near the bottom. My bias for an eventual break has switched the downside so holding on to your shorts may pay off once the range breaks. 

Weekend Review

The Euro has not bounced from the 1.46 level with the ferocity I had hoped for. It is possible that there will be another wave down possibly to as low as the 1.4450 zone, before a more sizable retracement. The currency was looking very weak over the last session compared to the other majors. I have moved my stop losses on my EUR/USD  and GBP/USD trades to just beneath the recent lows in the event that dollar strength continues. See the table to the left for my current trade ideas. The AUD/USD head and shoulders pattern is still playing out. The Aussie held up well against the USD until late in the session, but hopefully is will strengthen soon and we will get a better shorting opportunity. The USD/JPY seems to have reached the end of its B wave, with a sharp turn around in price action. Expect further downside from here.

USD/JPY Update

Here is an update of my USD/JPY count from earlier today. As you can see the W-X-Y could be counted as an A, with the Double-Three X a B, and the Z wave which is yet to come, a C. I have drawn in a Fibonacci of the W-X-Y move and placed it from the 61.8% Fibonacci of the entire move up. As you can see price is stalling around the 61.8% mark (Waves A and C are often related through a Fibonacci percentage) and I think price will likely soon turn downwards. 87.10 is the target where I will be looking to get long.

EUR/USD Triangle Getting Ready to Break!

Here is a 15 minute chart of the EUR/USD pair. I am expect a downside break very soon. The orange line shows basic wedge theory Technical Analysis where the distance at the opening of the wedge is taken and drawn from the breakout point of the triangle. Price is likely to reach that target. This will also true if my count is incorrect and the triangle breaks to the upside.

Getting out of my USD/JPY Long Positions.

Here is a detailed 10 minute chart of the correction we have seen in the USD/JPY pair thus far. Although there are multiple possible counts, the main thing that is apparent is that the wave I have labelled as Doube-Three X is corrective in nature, with multiple overlapping waves. This means it is likely there will be another, more impulsive looking wave down before further upside. The 61.8% Fibonacci is a good target. I will be setting orders to buy positions there.

NZD/USD 2 Hour Charts

A few possible counts for the NZD/USD currency pair. 3 waves up (green A), and 3 waves down (green B) have me thinking a flat correction is forming. This is in line with my expectations for dollar weakness against the pound over the coming few days.

GBP/USD Support Holding

This is just a rehash of a post I made the other day. Although Trend Line Support was breached and I was stopped out of my long trade the the GBP/USD pair, price has bounce back from just beyond the support lines and I am going to attempt to long again with a stop loss beneath the recent low.  Cmellon's Delta Trading charts http://cmellon-deltatrading.blogspot.com/ also point to some Pound strength over the coming days. 1.66 is the target.

USD/CAD 2 Hour Chart

The USD/CAD has formed a perfect impulse from the 1.02 area, well contained within an Elliott Channel. Wave structure since then has been extremely choppy and hard to define. Above is a possible count, however due to the complex nature of the waves I do not have high confidence in it. In red and green I have drawn in two possible outcomes for this pair. A clearly defined wedge is present, and an eventual topside breakout is probable. So far the 61.8% Fibonacci has held as support. I think it is likely to be tested again, that is where I will be looking to go long with a stop at 1.02.

Another AUD/USD Possibility

As an Elliottician it always important to consider multiple possible patterns. As much as I want the USD to continue its bull run, there is something in the back of my mind warning me to be cautious and not get too focused on any single possibility. It was actually the EUR/USD which has brought me to consider this, as I have a strong belief that 1.4625, the beginning point of the ending diagonal, will be hit prior to a major retracement (as is typical of EDs). It may happen that the AUD/USD consolidates in a 4th wave as the EUR/USD drops to the aforementioned level. The Australian dollar has been strong today on the back of positive employment data, and I expect this to continue over the next session. However if the EUR/USD rallies from 1.4625 then I expect the AUD to gain against the greenback also, which does not fit in with my previous count. This has me perplexed. Be cautious with your shorts, and place your stops accordingly.

AUD/USD Trade Idea

Following on from yesterdays chart, here is an hourly view of the AUD/USD pair. This looks like it could be a very rewarding short in the very near future. Below is a 15 minute zoom of the A-B-C correction above. I have labeled it as an A-B-C in the above chart for simplicities sake, however in the 15 minute chart I go into more detail. There are two possible counts below labeling wave C above. One is in black and one is in green. If the black count is correct, it is possible that it is complete. This will be confirmed if price breaches 0.91 without making a newer high. Look to short at 0.922 with a stop above 0.9325, or on a break of 0.91 if 0.92 is not hit.

I am exiting both my GBP/USD and AUD/USD long positions now. The AUD/USD because I have a count that says the pair may have topped already, and the GBP/USD, which has performed very poorly, because it is coming up to resistance and looks weak.

EUR/USD 4 Hour Chart

Here is an update of my EUR/USD count. I expect one more fall to the level of the red 4th wave extreme, as is usual after the completion of an Ending Diagonal. This also coincides with the 261.8% Fibonacci level of wave 1 down from the truncated 5th at the top. I will be looking to buy at 1.4630.

AUD/USD Trade Idea

Here is an update of a chart a did a while back, depicting a possible head and shoulders top in the AUD/USD pair. Below is an hourly chart of the most recent 5 waves down. I expect a pullback from current levels, similar to the GBP/USD, and a session or two of USD weakness before continuation of the trend.

USD/JPY Trade Idea

As you can see in the above 4 hour chart of USD/JPY, price action has bounced off a previous support line which has now become resistance. I am looking to go long with a stop just beneath this support line. An hourly zoom is shown below. As you can see wave 2 retraced just over 50% of wave 1 and it looks as if wave 4 will so the same. 

GBP/USD Trade Idea

Price looks to have bounced from near a junction of two strong support lines at around 1.6250. I will be looking to long with a stop just beneath the support line, targeting 1.6530, the 61.8% Fibonacci of the five wave down move. As you can see in the 30 minute chart below, wave 3 has extended (is greater than 1.618 times the length of by price) so it is unlikely wave 5 will continue before a considerable pullback, unless of course this count is proven invalid.

AUD/USD Hourly Chart

Here is a nice looking setup on the AUD/USD pair. A clear 5 waves down are present and A and B waves look to have completed. I will be looking to short from the 61.8% Fibonacci at 0.922 with a stop just about the high at 0.9323.

EUR/USD Ending Diagonal Complete

The EUR/USD major rising support line has broken, signaling the end of the bull run for the Euro. A clear 5 waves down can be counted, look for a small pullback before a sharp fall. 149.00/50 is the sell zone.

USD/JPY Hourly Charts

Here are several possible counts for the USD/JPY currency pair. It is unclear whether or not red wave 1 up is yet complete. This cannot be determined until the depth of the correction is confirmed. I took a short position in this pair at 90.75 near end of the US session last Friday as the pair looked extremely overbought after gaining 250 pips in only 7 hours.

EUR/USD Ending Diagonal Update

Here is a 4 hour update following on from my previous EUR/USD ED Chart. The surprising US Non-Farm Payroll announcement brought some volatility to the market, with the dollar gaining traction against all other currencies immediately following the release. If the EUR/USD is forming an ending diagonal price is likely to bounce from current levels very soon.

USD/JPY Leading Diagonal

A leading diagonal may almost be complete in the USD/JPY pair. Although I have my reservations as to this count being correct, due to irregularities with several LD guidelines (N.B. EW Rules cannot be broken, however EW Guidelines are merely higher probability commonalities - download a complete list of rules and guidelines here for more info) it is always beneficial to have several possibilities available and never be 'married' to a single count. For the above count to be correct, price must not exceed 88.187 or wave 5 will be greater than wave 3 which breaks one of the aforementioned rules.

EUR/USD Ending Diagonal Charts (4 Hour)

It is possible the EUR/USD is forming an ending diagonal. Above is one possible count for it. If the above count is correct and wave 5 of the ED is almost complete than price must not exceed 1.5172, as one of the rules of ending diagonals is that wave 5 must never exceed wave 3 by price. Ending diagonal are most common during 5th wave extensions, which is the case here, with wave 1 (beginning March '09) and wave 3 being approximately equal.

Here is another possible ED count. I think this count is more likely due to the closer times for corresponding waves. Either way, wave 5 must not exceed wave 3 by price or the ED count is invalid.

AUD/USD Head & Shoulders Reversal

Here is a possible long term outlook for the AUD/USD currency pair (4 Hour Chart). I expect the USD to gain some momentum before the end of the year, so this longer term scenario is a real possibility. If this head and shoulders pattern plays out accordingly, a break of the neckline will give us a target of around 85.20.

Yet Another USD/JPY Possibility

Here is another bullish count for the USD/JPY pair. Although I think it is more likely that an irregular flat is forming (see my previous USD/JPY chart), this is also a possibility. We will know if this chart is correct very soon, as the USD will show increasing strength over the next session, probably after touching on the 61.8% Fibonacci at 86.50.

USD/JPY Another Possibility

Recent price action has seen the USD fall sharply against the Yen as the BOJ announced that they will be keeping their key overnight loan rate unchanged at 0.10%. This is definitely not the follow through in price action I was expecting after this morning's announcements from Japan, but nevertheless has lead me to reconsider my wave count. It is possible an irregular flat is forming with a C leg still to complete before the next move upwards. I am holding my longs in the pair with my stop loss below the recent low at 84.80.

USD/JPY Breakout!

Here is an hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair. As you can see the 87/87.20 area has been a very important resistance/support line on many previous occasions. A confirmed breakout about this line has been brought about by speculation the the Bank of Japan will be considering currency intervention at a special policy meeting being held today. I think the gains are likely to accelerate from here and have taken a long position with a stop loss at 85.87.